April 14: Rain Returns On Friday

After the frost that was observed last night away from the coast, today warmed up into the 60s across the area with sunny skies. Tonight should be chilly again, with frost inland, however the frost should not be as widespread as it was last night. The 5-day forecast has lows in the mid to upper 30s inland, which could be locally in the lower 30s, in the upper 30s to lower 40s in the area just north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s in NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow should be much warmer, with temperatures returning into the lower 70s, possibly reaching the mid 70s. Unlike today, however, there should be more clouds, as a storm approaches the area.

Rain Returns Thursday Night Through Friday Night

The next storm to affect our area with precipitation, the second one to do so this month, is expected to bring light to moderate rain to the area between Thursday night and Friday night, with the heaviest rain staying to our north in New England and Upstate New York, with 1 to 2 inches of rain. Some snow is even expected in the higher elevations of Vermont and New Hampshire.

We are looking at a storm that will move towards the area from our northwest, which is expected to then move offshore, and move ENE south of Long Island. A warm front will first move through on Thursday night, however only light rain showers are expected out of this warm front, with less than 0.1 inch of rain expected.

Friday is expected to have cloudy skies with scattered showers at first, and as the cold front approaches, light to moderate rain and a few thunderstorms are expected to start in the afternoon. There may be some locally heavy rain on Friday evening. The showers and thunderstorms should end on Friday night, with scattered showers possible before Saturday afternoon.

Forecasting the temperatures for Friday was tricky, as there is no model consensus yet. While some models, such as the GFS and NAM, show high temperatures in the lower 50s, the GGEM shows high temperatures in the 60s. A sharp temperature gradient is expected, which can be seen for example on the 18z GFS, which has high temperatures in the lower 70s in Philadelphia, and in the 50s in New York City. There is uncertainty on where the exact gradient sets up, which means that the temperatures could end up being anywhere from the mid 50s to the upper 60s. At this time, I decided to lean towards the lower end of that range, in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Overall, at least 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain is expected in the area with locally higher amounts, except for eastern Long Island and eastern Connecticut that should see 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain. Most of the rain should fall on Friday evening out of this storm, though light rain showers are still expected earlier.

Longer Range Outlook: Dry Conditions To Return

After this storm, the weekend should have below average temperatures. High temperatures on Saturday should generally be in the mid 50s due to the cloud cover. Sunday should be slightly warmer, in the mid to upper 50s, and Monday returns into the 60s. The rest of the week should have near to slightly above average temperatures, with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. No rain is expected during this time period.

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