Mar 6: Update On Next Storm Potential


Mild Weekend Ahead

Today should finally break the cloudy pattern that this week had so far. My updated 3 day forecast from this morning shows mostly sunny skies across the area today, with high temperatures near 50 degrees in the New York City area and Long Island, and in the upper 40s further north and west. Tomorrow should continue to become warmer, with high temperatures already in the 50s in a widespread part of the tri-state area. Monday should be the warmest day, with high temperatures possibly in the mid 50s for the immediate New York City area, with Long Island and the north/west parts of the tri-state area in the lower 50s.

Mid Week Outlook: Still Dry, Slightly Colder Temperatures

After the mild weekend, we should see temperatures slightly cool down, though we’re not going to see about a cold spell, but rather slightly colder temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 40s across the area. The low temperatures will also become colder, generally in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Cloud cover is expected to be mostly to partly sunny during this time period.

Late Week To Next Weekend: Storm To Affect The Area

By the late week, things should get more active. We have a storm that should approach the area by the late week, bringing with it a lot of moisture. The models are all over the place, with the 00z GFS showing what appears to be a snowstorm, and some models being completely suppressed with the storm. This shows us how the models are not consistent at this time, and will most likely continue to be inconsistent until at least Tuesday or Wednesday.

One problem that is preventing us from seeing a snowstorm out of this storm is that we are missing a widespread, strong cold air mass. What we have at this time is a weak cold air mass to our north, which can easily make it a rain storm even with a supportive track for a snowstorm. We still have to see how strong the cold air is and how widespread it is, which might make the forecast slightly colder or warmer, though at this time, we are most likely looking at a rain event, possibly heavy, for Friday and Saturday, with a frozen precipitation event for the interior Northeast and the higher elevations of the interior Mid Atlantic.

Below is a map showing a scenario that I think could happen if my current thinking was to verify. This is not a scenario map, as it is still too early to issue a scenario map. Remember that this is still only my early thinking, and could end up being colder or warmer.

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