A major storm with heavy rain and flooding is currently affecting the area, with rain total between 1 inch in parts of northern New Jersey, to as much as 3 inches in southern New Jersey, parts of Long Island and Connecticut. The storm is expected to continue to affect the area until Wednesday, with each part of the storm below.
Late Afternoon To Evening Forecast:
For the evening hours, it appears that places west of New York City should stay dry with an isolated shower or two, however it will be a completely different story in the eastern half of Connecticut and Long Island. Heavy rain is expected to continue through the evening hours, with up to 1/2 inch of rain possible between 4 and 8 PM.
Tonight To Tuesday Morning Forecast:
The worst part of the storm is expected to arrive late tonight. The low pressure is expected to intensify and move towards the area, causing windy conditions to develop, with gusts up to 50-60 mph possible along the coast. Along with the wind, heavy rain is expected to continue in Long Island, while moderate to heavy rain re-enters New Jersey after midnight. The heaviest rain is expected to be in Long Island and Connecticut, where an additional 2-3 inches of rain are possible until late tomorrow morning with locally higher amounts, with the lightest rain in western New Jersey, where less than 1.5 inch of rain is expected.
Tuesday Afternoon, Rest Of Storm:
By Tuesday afternoon, the worst of the rain should have passed the area. Light to occasionally moderate rain is still expected, though winds may still remain an issue, and may not calm down until Tuesday evening. Any leftover light rain should end on Wednesday morning.
Since my last update on Saturday, the models shifted the heaviest rain axis to Long Island and Connecticut, which is what we are also seeing now with the heaviest rain located over those areas. Including what fell so far, a storm total of 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected in Long Island and Connecticut, with locally higher amounts up to 7-8 inches possible.
New York City and northeastern New Jersey should still get heavy rain, but not as much as Long Island, with the storm total including what fell so far between 2 and 4 inches. Northwestern New Jersey should end up with a storm total of at least 2 to 3 inches of rain.
Warm Spell For Next Weekend
Temperatures are expected to warm up quickly after the storm leaves, already reaching the upper 60s on Thursday. Friday will be warmer with highs in the lower to mid 70s. The warmest day is expected to be Saturday, with high temperatures in the upper 70s across the area except for the immediate coast. Some places may reach 80 degrees on Saturday.
Sunday and Monday will be slightly colder, as a cold front approaches the area, however at this time it appears that only light rain will fall out of this cold front.