Mar 24: Stormy Pattern Update

Forecast For The Remainder Of This Week

Tomorrow should be another mild day, with temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area, though we should be seeing increased cloud cover, already becoming cloudy by tomorrow afternoon, ahead of the next storm approaching from our west. Temperatures will go down into the upper 30s for the northwestern areas, and the lower 40s for the New York City area, and are expected to remain generally steady after midnight.

On Thursday night, the storm continues to spread east, with rain starting to fall in the western areas by the late afternoon hours and for the rest of the area tomorrow evening. The rain is expected to intensify and become moderate at times, with the highest rain amounts on Friday morning.

Meanwhile, a cold air mass will be pushing into the Northeast, causing the storm to start moving offshore and away from the area. While there should be enough precipitation in the Northeast to result in light snow with some accumulations, the storm will already have left the area when the cold air does reach the NYC Metro. Some snow could fall in northwestern New Jersey and Orange County in New York, however little to no accumulation is expected.

The rain is expected to end by late Friday morning, clearing skies by the afternoon. At least 1/2 inch of rain is expected across the area, with locally higher amounts. For the rest of Friday, temperatures will be steady in the morning and early afternoon hours, then should start to drop by the late afternoon hours. Windy conditions are also possible, with winds up to 20-25 mph for the NYC area and the coast, and gusts occasionally up to 30 mph.

Cold Saturday, Warmer Sunday

The coldest temperatures since late March are going to affect the area on Friday night. With a cold air mass entering the area, and with clear skies allowing for radiational cooling, temperatures are going to steadily drop across the area, and should be in the 20s across most of the area except for the immediate coast. Parts of the northwestern areas in the higher elevations might even have lows slightly below 20 degrees.

Saturday should be sunny, however the temperatures should be colder than average. High temperatures will generally be in the lower to mid 40s across the area, with the coldest temperatures north and northeast of New York City. Saturday night won’t be as cold as the previous night was, with low temperatures returning into the upper 20s and 30s for the area, and Sunday will already have high temperatures returning into the lower 50s.

Monday And Tuesday: Heavy Rain, Flooding Possible

The dry conditions won’t last for long, as another storm approaches the area on Monday, and may bring another heavy rain possibility. At this time, light rain is expected to start on Sunday night or Monday morning, with periods of rain, heavy at times, through Tuesday. This storm, combined with recent heavy rains, may cause additional flooding concerns for the area.

While there is still uncertainty on some details of the storm, looking at some of today’s model runs, they have highlighted the area as a part of the heavy rain zone, with over 1 inch of rain and potentially over 2 inches of rain. Below is what I am thinking at this time that the scenario for the storm could be, though there is still uncertainty with the heavy rain zone, as it may end up further north or south.

Late Week Warm Spell Potential

As I mentioned yesterday, there is the potential for a warm spell. While it is becoming more likely for places in the Midwest and in the Plains, there is a backdoor cold front that may prevent the much warmer temperatures from reaching the area at first. As a result, temperatures would probably warm up to the 50s and 60s at most during the middle of next week, and if the warm spell is able to advance further east by the late week, then temperatures might be able to reach the 60s and 70s by next weekend.

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