Update On Tomorrow’s Light Precipitation Event
We are currently seeing a split between the GFS and NAM models. The NAM, which has been consistent with a sharp cut off line to the precipitation well offshore, bringing only light rain/snow showers to the area, goes against the GFS, which has been showing the heavier precipitation from the storm making it inland, and in the past few runs it took it even more inland, which would bring NYC 4-6 inches of snow.
In previous storms this winter, when we were dealing with storms that had a sharp cut off line, the NAM usually performed better than the GFS. Examples include the December 19-20, 2009 storm, where the NAM had NW NJ and NE PA with low QPF amounts when the GFS brought heavy snow to those areas, and the February 5-6 storm, when in the last few runs, the GFS showed several inches of snow to most of northern NJ and the NAM had only a few snow showers. This leads me to believe that the NAM may have the more correct solution for this storm, and while it should be a little wetter than the NAM shows, I don’t expect it to bring as much precipitation as the GFS shows.
I am still expecting light snow to start late tonight, mixing with rain towards the coast. The light snow/rain will continue through tomorrow, with snow accumulations near or less than 1 inch. The precipitation then ends tomorrow night.
Warm Up To Begin Next Weekend
Those who have been waiting for a taste of warm weather may finally get what they wanted next weekend, when our first major widespread warm up since late January takes place. After the mid week storm exits, the warmer air from the west will spread east, removing the cold air mass out of most of the Northeast. We also do not have another arctic high pressure dropping out of Canada, but instead there will be a weak low pressure area that should also help draw in the warm temperatures. Expect the weekend to steadily become warmer, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s by Saturday. Sunday will continue to warm up, with high temperatures possibly in the lower 50s for parts of the area. Monday will be another mild day, with high temperatures in the 50s.
Then comes our next storm, however this time it is unlikely to bring any snow to the area. Instead, we are looking at a storm that should track well north and west of the area, bringing along with it unseasonably warm air for a day or two, followed by a cold front that brings rain and a cool down back to colder temperatures. There is still uncertainty on whether a secondary low does or does not form, which if it does, temperatures could be slightly colder (40s/50s instead of 50s/60s), though whether it happens or not, we are most likely looking at rain for the middle of next week with above average temperatures.