Today was yet another nice day with high temperatures in the 50s across the area, though today was the last day of sunshine for a while, as for the next few days, we will have cloudy conditions with rain and flooding as our first storm since last week impacts the area.
Thursday – Saturday Morning Outlook
At this time, it appears that tomorrow should have cloudy skies, with scattered light rain showers starting late tomorrow night. There is uncertainty on the exact rain amounts that fall on Friday, as some models show moderate rain on Friday, while others, such as the NAM, don’t have a single drop of rain until Saturday morning. At this time, I think that we should see occasional periods of light to moderate rain until Saturday morning, with at least 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain possible across the area by then. The highest amounts by Saturday morning will be south and west of NYC, and the lowest amounts will be in Long Island and Connecticut.
Saturday Afternoon – Monday Outlook
The storm should have its biggest impact on the area between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. An area of heavy rain starts to affect the area, with flooding across the area, especially in places that still have snow on the ground. Some wind is also possible, but at this time it doesn’t look like a significant wind event. There is still uncertainty on the exact timing of the heavy rain, as the latest GFS run would bring the heaviest rain by Sunday morning, the NAM by Saturday night, and the NOGAPS by Saturday morning, though it does look likely at this time that Saturday night will be the best time frame for heavy rain.
By at least Sunday morning or afternoon, the rain should start to become lighter, but light rain should still stay in the area until Monday. When the storm is over, total rainfall amounts of 2.5 to 4 inches are possible, with locally higher amounts.