It appears that despite what the scenario that the models originally showed, the storm won’t be bringing heavy rain to New Jersey tonight into tomorrow morning.
The storm ended up being further east than expected, and it’s also moving slightly faster than expected. There is some light rain currently extending over north central and NE NJ, with moderate to heavy rain in New York City, Long Island and parts of Connecticut, however the rain’s western edge is not spreading inland, as the models originally showed, but instead is moving north to NNE. Looking at the radar, there is no area of widespread heavy rain moving behind, but rather light rain with an occasional area of moderate to heavy rain.
As a result of the above, I decided to lower rainfall amounts for northern New Jersey. Northwestern New Jersey, which appears to be west of the main rain bands, is only expected to receive at least 1/4 inch of rain, with locally higher amounts up to 1/2 inch. Northeastern New Jersey, which is expected to get into some of the rain bands, should get at least 1/2 to 3/4 inch of rain, with locally higher amounts up to 1 inch, and New York City should see at least 3/4 to 1 inch of rain, with locally higher amounts up to 1.25 or 1.5 inch.
Long Island and most of Connecticut, however, aren’t going to be spared from the heavy rainfall. Despite the storm tracking further east, heavy rain is still expected to affect these areas, with 2 to 3 inches of rain possible tonight.