Below is my verification for all of my forecasts for the snowstorm from this morning.
**Note: To prevent confusion, the forecast verifications I do each morning are only for the forecasts that I made in my previous update. So if I said less than 1/2 inch on one day and 1-2 inches the second day, when making my forecast verification on the third day, I would only grade what I did on the previous day’s forecast, which here would be the 1-2 inch call.
The 1-2 inches of snow (with some reports of 3-4 inches) that fell across the area this morning seem to have fallen a long time ago, especially considering that most of that snow melted across the region, except for the interior areas.
Long Range Verification: From the longer range, I originally expected a few rain or snow showers with this storm. The models then trended south, and I then expected a possible impact by rain or snow showers.
Shorter Range Verification: As the storm approached, I expected less than 1/2 inch in the area, with up to 1 inch south of NYC. That update was made before the models trended wetter. By yesterday morning, the models were showing 1 to 2.5 inches of snow in the area, so I increased my forecast to show 1-2 inches, which ended up being in the range of the final totals.
Overall, if I was to give myself a score on the forecasts, it would be a B+.
New Update on Weekend Storm – Too Far South?
The 00z NAM model that just came out completely backed away from the original idea it had. It trended so far south that NYC does not even see any snow out of this storm. We will see what happens tomorrow, but with the rest of the models also not as far north as the NAM was earlier, the trends are really not looking good for any snowstorm potential.