As I previously mentioned on Saturday, the models have been consistently showing a storm for the late week. At that time, my thoughts were that the worst impacts of the storm should stay to our north and east, and as of now, this still appears to be the case. While there is still uncertainty for our area, the majority of the models show as much as 2 or even 3 feet of snow in the interior Northeast and New England, as an intense storm moves northwest into the Northeast from the ocean, bringing rain to the coast and heavy snow for interior locations. This storm should also stay for a longer period of time, which increases the duration of the snow for the interior areas, which is another reason for those high snowfall amounts.
While it is becoming likely that the interior should see a major snowstorm, what happens in the southern part of the storm, also over New York City, is still uncertain. Some models such as the GFS show heavy snow with as much as nearly a foot of snow for some places, the NAM model is not as agressive and has smaller precipitation amounts, and the GGEM model stays mainly to our north and east with most of the precipitation.
I am currently thinking that other than a mix possible to start, the area changes over to snow, and while accumulations are still uncertain, they could end up from light amounts in the southern parts of the area, to potentially heavy amounts in the northern parts of the area. Below is my first scenario map, with the heaviest snow in the blue zone and lighter amounts in the light blue zones. The pink areas represent mixing to snow, and the green area is mainly rain, though they could also change over to snow at the end.
**Please note, this is only my first scenario map, and is subject to change.**