Forecast Verifications

Verification For Saturday: I expected snow ending in the afternoon for places west and south of NYC, with places further north having cloudy skies, starting to clear in the afternoon. I expected high temperatures in the mid to upper 20s across the area. The coast was slightly warmer, with high temperatures in the lower 30s.
Score: 3/4

Verification For Saturday Night: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the lower to mid 10s north and west of NYC, in the mid to upper 10s in the north and west suburbs, and in the upper 10s to lower 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. The actual temperatures were in the range of my forecast, except some areas further north and west in Sussex/Orange counties that had lows in the upper single digits.
Score: 4/4

Verification For Sunday: I expected Sunny skies, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. The whole area ended up being warmer than I expected, with places north and west of NYC in the lower 30s, and NYC in the mid to upper 30s.
Score: 2/4

Verification For Sunday Night: I expected Mostly Clear skies, with low temperatures in the lower to mid 10s north and west of NYC, in the mid to upper 10s in the north and west suburbs, and in the upper 10s to lower 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. The north and western areas ended up being slightly warmer than I expected, otherwise the rest of the forecast verified.
Score: 3/4

Verification For Today: I expected Mostly Sunny, with high temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. Once again, temperatures ended up being warmer than I expected, in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast, though it was not a complete bust as some of the actual highs were in my forecast range.
Score: 3/4

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Saturday’s Storm Verification:

The storm on Saturday ended up being historic or nearly historic for the central Mid Atlantic, including the corridor from Washington DC to Philadelphia. Yet some areas such as northern NJ did not get any snow out of the storm at all, which was mainly due to dry air, and the snow band stalling in central NJ. My forecast snowfall maps from Thursday and Friday were both too high with amounts for northern NJ and too low for southern NJ/Philadelphia, but I noted the potential of my forecast busting in my 11 PM storm update, correctly expecting snowfall amounts to be between 15-25 inches for central NJ and further south, with significantly lower amounts for northern NJ if the snow band was to stall there, which it did. This storm was very confusing to forecast, and based on my forecasts and the last minute update, I would give myself a B for my forecast.

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