Feb 22, 2010: Final Forecast For Tomorrow’s Storm

Below is my final forecast for this storm. I have a forecast for each part of the New York City area, along with a forecast for rainfall amounts and the snow/wintry mix accumulations. At the bottom, I also included a precipitation type map and a snow map.

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Forecast Area 1: Long Island and Connecticut

Area 1: Coastal Connecticut and Long Island

The area might start out with some mixing this evening, however as the warm air pushes into the area from the west, expect precipitation to quickly change over to rain. There might be a brief break in the rain in the morning hours tomorrow, followed by the development of the coastal low. This is also when the rain intensifies for the area, and might become heavy at times. The heavy rain continues until Tuesday night, and tapers off by at least early Wednesday morning.

Snow accumulations: Little to None
Rainfall amounts: 1 to 2 inches

Area 2: Central Connecticut

Areas of light snow will approach the area tonight, and should start to intensify a little more, with some accumulations possible. As warmer air pushes into the area, expect precipitation to change over to a wintry mix. A brief break in the precipitation is possible tomorrow afternoon, while the coastal low intensifies and pulls in some colder air. The area should then see snow in the higher elevations and a wintry mix elsewhere, which could be heavy at times. The coastal then pushes in some warmer air, which changes the lower elevations over to rain/mixing with a snow/mixing in the higher elevations. Most of the precipitation will end in Wednesday morning, with scattered precipitation through the day on Wednesday.

Snow accumulations: 2 to 5 inches
Rainfall amounts: Up to 1/2 inch in the higher elevations, 0.75 to 1.5 inches elsewhere

Area 3: Northern Connecticut

Snow should start falling in the area late tonight into early tomorrow morning, steadily intensifying. After a brief break possible in the afternoon hours, more precipitation moves into the area as the coastal low continues to develop. The precipitation will be mainly in the form of snow, though southern parts of the area and the lower elevations should see a wintry mix with some rain. After becoming heavy at times overnight, the precipitation ends on Wednesday morning to afternoon, with scattered precipitation afterwards.

Snow accumulations: 5 to 10 inches
Rainfall amounts: 0.25 to 0.5 inches in the lower elevations and southern parts of the area

Forecast Area 2: New York City, Southeastern New York, and New Jersey

Area 1: Eastern New Jersey Coast

A brief wintry mix is possible early tonight, however that should quickly change over to some rain. After a break in the precipitation tomorrow morning, another round of heavy rain starts to fall. This rain will continue through tomorrow night, and end early on Wednesday morning.

Snow accumulations: None
Rainfall amounts: 0.75 to 1.5 inches

Area 2: New York City and southern Westchester County

When precipitation starts to fall tonight, it should be in the form of either light snow or a mix. The frozen preciptation continues to fall for at most a few hours with little to no accumulation, and as warm air advances into the area, the precipitation type changes over to rain. A break in the rain is possible during tomorrow morning, followed by heavier rain as the coastal low intensifies. The rain may become heavy at times. By the late evening or overnight hours, the rain should weaken, and end by early Wednesday morning.

Snow accumulations: Little to None
Rainfall amounts: 0.80 to 1.50 inches

Area 3: Northern New Jersey

The precipitation should start on Monday evening, mainly in the form of light snow or a mix. The wintry mix should intensify, with some accumulation expected. The northwestern areas might see 2-4 inches, the north central areas with 1-3 inches, and the northeastern parts with less than an inch. The precipitation then changes over mainly to a wintry mix with some light rain. There might be a break with the rain or very light rain afterwards, followed by another round of rain during Tuesday afternoon, which should be moderate to occasionally heavy. The northwestern areas might see a longer period of a wintry mix, however rain is expected there too. The rain/mix will change over to plain snow in the northwestern parts, to a wintry mix in the north central areas, and remain as plain rain in NE NJ. By tomorrow night, the precipitation will start to taper off, and should end by early Wednesday morning.

Snow accumulations: Less than 1 inch in NE NJ, 1-4 inches in north central NJ, 3-6 inches in NW NJ
Rainfall amounts: 0.5 to 1.25 inch, highest amounts further east

Area 4: Southeastern New York (from Rockland county and slightly north/west)

Light snow should start to fall tonight. The snow might intensify a little overnight with some accumulations. As the warm air pushes into the area, the snow will change over to a wintry mix and some rain in the southern parts of the area. After a brief break in the late morning hours, another round of precipitation develops in the afternoon. This should bring snow/some mixing to the north and western parts of the area, and a wintry mix of snow/mixing/rain to the southern and eastern parts of the area. Accordingly, the highest accumulations will be in the northwestern parts of the area, with 3 to 6 inches of snow, with the lowest accumulations in the southern and eastern areas, with 1 to 3 inches of snow. The precipitation should end early Wednesday morning.

Snow accumulations: 1 to 3 inches further SE, 3 to 6 inches further NW
Rainfall amounts: Up to 1/2 inch

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Storm Scenario Map (main precipitation type):

Snow Accumulation Map:

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