February 9-10 Storm Updates

I will be doing updates for this storm throughout this evening and tomorrow. Each update will be added onto this post.


Small Updates: (Here I will do shorter, less detailed updates of the storm.)

8:09 PM: The snow is still falling across the area, however it is lighter than earlier today. Northern New Jersey and Southeastern New York are currently seeing light to moderate snow, with New York City, Long Island and southern Connecticut seeing moderate to heavy snow. The coastal low apparently briefly stalled earlier today, however it is now starting to move away from the area. We should see the snow exiting the north and western areas first, in the next 1-2 hours. Afterwards, areas from NYC and north/west will see their snow end between 10 PM and 12 AM, with Long Island seeing snow until at least 1-3 AM tomorrow morning.

4:26 PM: The strongest banding of this storm has formed in southern Long Island, and from NYC and further west and south. Areas in central New Jersey could end up with as much as 17-22 inches of snow by the time that the snow ends. Northern New Jersey, southeastern New York and southern Connecticut, however, should stay north of this additional heavy snow. Totals in northern New Jersey should end up being between at least 8 to 14 inches, with locally lower or higher amounts.

2:47 PM: Snow is now falling across the whole area, as colder air is moving towards the coast. It appears that most of Connecticut so far has had less snow than expected, and while the snow should intensify there later this afternoon into tonight, I wouldn’t expect any widespread accumulations over 14 inches there. The heaviest snow is currently located over Long Island, New York City, northern and central New Jersey.

12:51 PM: Places north and west of New York City are still seeing snow, with snowfall amounts anywhere from 6 to 12 inches as of now. New York City and Long Island are seeing rain and sleet mixing in with the snow, limiting accumulations. More precipitation is now moving into northern New Jersey from Long Island, and while the mixing line could continue to slowly crawl to the north and west over the next hour or so, by at least 2-3 PM we should start seeing this line move away from the area and out to sea, with temperatures starting to cool down.

9:22 AM: Snow continues to fall heavily across the area, with sleet occasionally mixing in for Long Island and places south of New York City. West of New York City, the snow should temporarily end due to the dry slot, however east of NYC, it appears that the snow will continue as more snow bands are forming south of Long Island, moving north. The mixing line will continue to slowly move north, reaching its peak by at least noon, and moving back south and east again.

8:20 AM: Heavy snow is currently affecting the whole region, with snow rates generally between 1 and 2 inches per hour, locally higher. The heaviest snow is currently over NW Long Island and far SE New York, slowly moving north. In that band of snow, expect very low visibilities, with snow rates up to 3-4 inches per hour possible. The snow will then temporarily become light after at least 9 AM due to a dry slot, before more snow moves in later on.

7:36 AM: A very heavy snow band is currently entering southern Long Island, with the snow intensity up to 50 DBZ. Snow could accumulate very heavily there in the next hour or two. A dry slot is also moving north towards Trenton, and should enter northern NJ after this snow band. Behind the brief dry slot, another round of moderate-heavy snow is developing.

Wednesday, February 10
6:45 AM Update:

Heavy wet snow started to fall in the last hour across the New York City area, and will continue to move north to affect places north of NYC. Current accumulations in the area vary from a coating to as much as several inches of snow. Moderate to heavy snow is expected to continue throughout the day.

The mix line, however, is appearing to be further north and west than originally thought, with Philadelphia and Washington DC having previously reported a wintry mix despite their forecasts not expecting any mixing. The areas where mixing could occur between at least 9 AM and 12 PM is in Long Island, New York City, and parts of Northeast New Jersey.


9:25 PM Update:

The dry slot is slowly starting to move NE and out of the area, meaning that the snow is getting closer, and will most likely start falling within the next 1-3 hours across the area. While temperatures in the immediate New York City area are still in the upper 30s to lower 40s, once the snow starts, temperatures will quickly drop, most likely towards the lower 30s, with wet snow starting to accumulate.

The latest model, the 00z NAM, just came in and was much wetter than its previous runs, bringing 1.75 to 2.00 inches of precipitation, or 17.5 to 20 inches of snow. I would not trust this last minute trend too much, as last Saturday, the GFS made a last minute trend north to show 5 to 7.5 inches of snow for parts of northern New Jersey that did not see snow at all. However, considering that some other short range models such as the NMM and ARW also showed something similar, an increase in snowfall amounts is one of the many things to keep an eye on for this storm.


6:45 PM Update:

There is currently heavy wet snow starting to fall across northern Virginia, Maryland and southern Pennsylvania, accumulating rather quickly. Temperatures are slowly dropping for the New York City area, currently between the mid 30s and lower 40s, with cloudy skies. The coastal storm that will impact us tomorrow is currently intensifying in North Carolina, moving to the northeast.

One area of concern currently is a dry slot developing in central Pennsylvania, which was not modeled. This dry slot is currently expanding, which could delay the storm’s starting time north and west of New York City. As the coastal storm continues to intensify, we should see snow cover that region again, however this dry slot is something to watch out for, as if it holds steady for long enough, it could have an impact on the final result of the storm.

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