Feb 8: Snow On Wednesday

Tonight: Mostly Clear. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow: Increasing Clouds. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 30s to lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow Night: Cloudy. Snow starting after 11 PM to 2 AM. Low temperatures will be in the lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. Snowfall accumulations between 1 and 3 inches possible.

Wednesday: Snow. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s across the area. Snowfall accumulations between 5 and 8 inches possible.

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Wednesday Storm Forecast:

If I were to go by yesterday’s forecast models, we would be looking at a foot plus snowstorm for the area, with a lot of snow. However, all of the models today have trended away from this, with less precipitation for the area and slightly further east, bringing New York City 6 to 10 inches of snow, instead of what could have been 12 to 18 inches of snow. The latest runs of the GFS and the NAM models keep the heaviest precipitation from north of Washington DC to Philadelphia and central NJ. In fact, the latest forecasts from the HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) no longer have northern New Jersey in a high risk for over 8 inches of snow. While we are looking at an intense storm, with blizzard conditions possible for areas closer to the coast, the trend has been away from a 12+ inch storm for the area. I would wait until tonight’s runs before making any additional forecasts, but if the 00z runs (tonight’s runs) do not shift north/west or trend wetter, then the New York City area is most likely not going to see over 12 inches of snow .

At this time, my current thoughts would be for 8-14 inches from Washington DC to Philadelphia with locally higher amounts, 5-10 inches for the New York City tri-state area, and 4-8 inches for Boston. Remember that these are preliminary forecast totals, and could change by tomorrow’s final forecast for the storm, whether the models stay the same, trend south, or trend north.

Longer Range Forecast:

The next storm will approach the East Coast by next weekend, but it should not be anywhere close to affecting us. In fact, it is expected to track through Florida, and snow is possible as far south as Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below average during this time period.

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