Feb 5: Forecast For Tonight/Tomorrow

Verification For Thursday Night: I expected Mostly Clear skies, with low temperatures in the lower to mid 10s north and west of NYC, in the mid to upper 10s for the north and west suburbs, and in the upper 10s to lower 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. For the interior, my forecast verified, but I was way too cold for NYC, which had lows in the mid to upper 20s.
Score: 2/4

Verification For Today: I expected Increasing Clouds, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. The cloud cover was cloudy during the whole day, but the temperature forecast verified.
Score: 3/4

Tonight: Snow, starting between 10 PM and 1 AM. Low temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, in the lower to mid 20s in the north and west suburbs of NYC, and in the mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow: Snow. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s across the area.

Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 10s north and west of NYC, in the mid to upper 10s in the north and west suburbs, and in the upper 10s to lower 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Sunday: Sunny. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

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Tonight’s Storm: Final Forecast

We are already seeing some changes to the storm currently happening, with some locations seeing snow earlier than expected, the primary low over Kentucky slightly intensifying for a little longer, and the GFS model having trended towards more snow in the area in its latest run. Some other models that were also south, such as the GGEM, also trended slightly further north. Below is my final call for the New York City area:

Longer Range Update:

For the longer range, we have yet another storm that might approach the area during the middle of next week, between Tuesday and Thursday. While its effects are uncertain, models are hinting that this storm might be further north than today’s storm, possibly bringing a snowstorm to the area. This is nowhere near final, as the models still have more time for trending, but we need to keep an eye on this time frame as it could produce our next snowfall.

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