Feb 27: Another Potential Storm Next Week

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy. Scattered snow showers. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.

Tomorrow Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Monday: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.


Yesterday’s Blizzard Ending, Records Approached Or Broken

The storm that was a blizzard for parts of the area on Thursday and Friday has mainly ended, though isolated snow showers should continue through tomorrow. The highest accumulations in the area came from interior southeastern New York and northwestern New Jersey, where isolated areas reached nearly 3 feet of snow. Snow totals were still high across other parts of the area, with the highest total in the immediate suburbs of NYC coming out of Bergen and Union conties, in Northeast New Jersey, with slightly over 21 inches, and Ossining in Westchester County, NY with 25 inches of snow.

Records were also approached or broken with this storm. Central Park reported nearly 21 inches of snow, making it the 4th biggest snowstorm on record there. This snowstorm is now behind the March 1888, December 1947 and February 2006 storms in terms of snow totals.

This snowstorm also increased monthly snow totals to 36.9 inches in Central Park, and over 40 inches in parts of the area. This officially makes it the snowiest February on record, with the previous record being 27.9 inches in 1934. This also makes it the snowiest month on record, with the previous record being 30.5 inches in March 1896.

The Next Storm In Line

A storm is expected to enter the California coast, and is expected to start heading east towards the eastern United States by the early week. There is still uncertainty on whether it does affect us or if it stays to our south, however. The majority of the models take the storm to our south, with the main impacts being in Washington DC and further south. What is preventing this storm from going all the way up the coast is a storm that is expected to head towards Maine by tomorrow and Monday. That will force this storm to start heading out to sea instead of moving up the coast. If we were to see the New England storm further east, or if that storm was weaker than currently expected, then this storm might be able to trend north enough for a light-moderate snowfall from New York City to Boston, however that is still uncertain.

If the storm does end up suppressed, there are some problems that would prevent this storm from producing yet another heavy snowstorm for most of the Mid Atlantic. We do not have a source of new arctic air, so the air mass is not cold enough as it was for previous storms. The average temperatures are also warmer now in the Mid Atlantic, which are too warm for a plain snowstorm in some places. So if the storm ends up being too far south, instead of a widespread south-central Mid Atlantic snowstorm as we would’ve seen earlier in the winter, it would be a mainly wintry mix event, with a smaller area of snow in the northern part of the storm.

Overall, at this time, there are still uncertainties with this storm, but considering some factors that I said above, I would expect this storm to have the biggest impacts in the southern and central Mid Atlantic, with the northern Mid Atlantic and southern New England seeing some impacts from this storm but not as much as places further south.

Addition To Long Range Forecast: Warm Up Next Weekend?

After the mid week storm, the models are starting to show hints of the cold pattern in the East temporarily ending, with warmer temperatures starting to enter the area. There is still some uncertainty on this time period, though I can see how places in the Mid Atlantic get high temperatures as warm as over 60 degrees if this mild spell verifies. If it does verify, this would be the first widespread significant warm up since late January.

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