Current Storm Update:
While little to no snow fell in the coastal parts of the area, more than several inches of snow fell in the interior areas. With the coastal low still intensifying, for the coast, expect heavy rain to continue through early tomorrow morning with 1 to 2 inches of rain, and for the interior, depending on the exact location, the precipitation should change over to snow or a wintry mix later tonight with additional accumulations.
Expect Wednesday to be cloudy with occasional precipitation.
Late Week Storm: Blizzard Possible For New Jersey To Maryland?
After I made my post yesterday about what my first thoughts on the late week storm are, most of the models took a rather large trend inland, with the storm now shown to track over New York City. While in a typical storm, this would spell rain for New York City and further south, this storm will be different than a typical storm in its track, and therefore it will have a different impact than most storms taking this track.
The storm currently bringing snow to Texas is expected to quickly move offshore by tomorrow. Instead of going out to sea, however, this storm should then turn north and start heading towards the Northeast while rapidly intensifying. As the storm approaches the area, it then starts to move northwest towards the coast. There is still uncertainty on where it stalls afterwards, it could be near New York City as shown by the GFS and NAM, though it could still end up further north or south than this solution.
While there is uncertainty about what the precipitation types are at first across the area, the storm should then pull colder air, changing most of the area over to snow by at least Friday. The storm also stalls in the area through Saturday, producing even more precipitation until then. As the storm should also be strong, high winds are possible across the area, causing snow drifts in places where heavy snow does fall.
Snowfall amounts are still uncertain for our area, though it is becoming increasingly likely that this storm might be yet another monster storm for someone in the central or northern Mid Atlantic, with potentially 2 or more feet of snow possible in the places that get the highest snow amounts out of this storm.
Below are my current scenario maps for this storm, of what I think the two possible scenarios are at this time. The first map represents a further south and west track, where most of the area sees a wintry mix changing over to snow by Friday, with rain to mix/snow in Long Island. The second map represents a slightly further north and east track, with mainly snow across the area, in potentially big amounts. The third possible scenario is the map that I posted yesterday, which is becoming less likely but still possible.