Feb 2, 2010: Accumulating Snow Tonight

Verification for Monday Night: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4

Verification for Today: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4

Tonight: Periods of snow. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. Snow accumulations between 1 and 2 inches expected.

Tomorrow: Cloudy. Light snow ending in the morning. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for the north and west suburbs, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Thursday: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

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Short Term Forecast (Tuesday to Thursday):

For tonight, a storm that will track to our south should affect our area, the first to do so since January 28. Places further south, such as Washington DC, should get a notable snow accumulation out of this storm, with 3 to 6 inches of snow expected, and our area should be in the northern side of this storm. The latest models trended further north than yesterday, and as a result, we would get a period of moderate snow overnight. Places north of NYC should end up with 1-2 inches of snow, while places south of NYC could potentially even have slightly more than 2 inches of snow.

The snow will end by Wednesday morning, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. Thursday will remain with near average temperatures, similar to Wednesday’s temperatures.

Forecast for the Upcoming Weekend:

Friday will be similar to Thursday in terms of temperatures, in the 30s across the area, with dry conditions. Then comes our next uncertainty, for next weekend. We will have a storm forming to our south, stronger than Wednesday’s storm. The current likely scenario appears to be a storm trying to move into the western side of the Appalachians, however it is prevented from doing so completely and forms a secondary low, with then becomes the main storm, off the coast of either South Carolina, North Carolina or Virginia.

The models have trended north since yesterday in terms of the storm’s location. It now appears that even though we still have a few days until the storm and we still have uncertainty, our area is now becoming more likely to see some type of snow this weekend, but it’s not certain yet. What we need to know at this time, if it does snow, is whether it will be light, moderate, heavy, or if we end up with mixing issues (with sleet/rain mixing). It is not yet possible to answer this question, but we can determine that while it is uncertain what this storm will do, the chances of the storm impacting our area as of now are better than they were yesterday. Stay tuned for more updates.

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