Feb 17: Uncertainty For Next Week

Verification For Tuesday Night: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast was correct, though some areas in northwestern NJ and southeast NY saw low temperatures in the upper 10s.
Score: 4/4

Verification For Today: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 30s to lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. While the exact high temperatures have yet to be reached, cloud cover in the afternoon kept temperatures colder than expected, with the temperatures as of now in the mid 30s across the area.
Score: 3/4

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 30s to lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Friday: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 30s to lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.

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Uncertainty For Next Week’s Possible Storm

The models continue to show different solutions with not much consistency. The most unconsistent model is the GFS, which showed some very strange runs, including its 00z run where it had a low pressure off the Georgia coast, with precipitation all the way into southern Canada. The 12z GFS showed a snowstorm for the area, however I do not expect it to become more consistent until at least tomorrow or Friday.

The other models are starting to show hints of a Miller B storm, showing a scenario where the storm tries to move up near the Appalachian mountains but due to blocking, is forced to transfer its energy to a developing coastal low. This solution would be similar to the track of the February 5-7 storm. These models also bring in warmth, resulting in a wintry mix for New York City and rain for the Mid Atlantic, which could cause a potentially massive flooding for that area if verified, due to the deep snow cover currently in place there.

Looking at some factors other than the models, there are some clues to help us determine the track that the storm could possibly take. There has been a good amount of blocking this winter, preventing storms from going all the way up the Great Lakes or Appalachians and forcing them to transfer their energy to a coastal low. There has also been a trend that most storms continue to move slightly north of the other, with the February 5-7 storm affecting the Mid Atlantic, the February 10 storm affecting the northern Mid Atlantic, and the February 16 storm affecting the northern Mid Atlantic and southern New England.

While it’s too early to know more details about the storm’s potential track and impacts, my first guess would be that the storm tracks through the Ohio Valley, transferring its energy to a coastal low off the coast of Delaware or New Jersey that moves northeast, bringing a wintry mix to the major cities along I-95 and heavy snows for the interior Northeast and New England. This is just my current thinking, and is subject to change as there is still uncertainty. Stay tuned for more updates on this potential storm.

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