Feb 13: Update On Monday-Tuesday Storm

Verification For Friday Night: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the lower 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast was correct.
Score: 4/4

Verification For Today: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. Today’s cloud cover was mostly cloudy to cloudy, though the temperature forecast was correct.
Score: 3/4

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s across the area.

Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s across the area.

Monday: Mostly Cloudy. A chance of light rain and snow after 2-4 PM. High temperatures will be in the mid 30s across the area.

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Monday Night-Tuesday Storm Update

Today’s models have taken a rather significant north trend from yesterday. The GGEM, which was the southern outlier yesterday, now brings moderate to heavy snow much further north, and the GFS and NAM models are bringing snow into northern New England with a mix of snow, sleet and rain in the NYC area. The 18z GFS did trend slightly further south than the 12z GFS, and I do think that we should not see the storm trend much further north, if at all. I’m expecting the storm to trend slightly further south at this time, but not as far south as my thoughts from yesterday.

Below is my second scenario map for this storm. The light snow area is for 1-3 inches, the moderate area is for 3-6 inches, and the heavy area is still uncertain, but is where I think the potential is for 6-8 or more inches of snow. Places in the purple areas should see mixing.

Note that my map is based on a slight south trend. If the models remain the same or trend slightly further north, then mixing would extend into eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, most of Connecticut and towards Boston.

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