Feb 1: Wednesday, Sunday Possible Snows?

Verification For Saturday: I expected Cloudy skies with light snow showers south of NYC. I expected high temperatures to be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. While I made my forecast colder than what it appeared to be due to cloud cover, temperatures ended up being even lower than that, in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 10s to lower 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Score: 3/4

Verification For Saturday Night: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 0s north and west of NYC, in the lower 10s for the north and west suburbs of NYC, and in the mid 10s for NYC and closer to the coast. Wind chills below 0 degrees are possible north and west of NYC. The forecast was correct.
Score: 4/4

Verification For Sunday : I expected Mostly Sunny skies, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast was correct.
Score: 4/4

Verification For Sunday Night: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 10s to lower 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. The interior was colder than my expectations, in the lower to mid 10s, while the coast was warmer, in the lower to mid 20s.
Score: 3/4

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Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow Night: Cloudy. Light snow, mainly after midnight. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. Snow accumulations less than 1/2 inch expected.

Wednesday: Cloudy. Light snow ending in the morning. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

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Short Term Forecast (Monday to Wednesday):

Tonight will be still chilly, but not as cold as previous nights, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. Tomorrow will have more clouds with temperatures in the lower to mid 30s across the area. By tomorrow night, however, a relatively weak storm that will track to our south might end up affecting the area. It will be far south enough to give places such as Washington DC and southern NJ a period of moderate snow with up to 1-2 inches of snow possible, but it’s still a question if the storm makes it far north enough to affect our area. At this time, I think that we could get some light snow, with up to 1/2 inch.

Any snow that does fall will end by Wednesday morning, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Medium Range Forecast (Thursday to Sunday):

Thursday and Friday should end up being the warmest days of this week. High temperatures on both days will be no lower than the mid 30s, and some places near NYC could even pass 40 degrees once again, which is a relief after how cold it has been in the past few days. Low temperatures, however, will still remain cold, in the upper 10s to 20s.

Then comes our next uncertainty, for next weekend. Saturday should still be dry with high temperatures colder, back into the lower 30s, however we then have a storm forming to our south, stronger than Wednesday’s storm. The models for this storm are not yet consistent, however there is an agreement that this storm should not be able to track too far north to bring us warmth and rain. The next question is, do we get snow or will it be too far south?

Looking at the latest model runs, the GGEM and EURO models have this far north enough to give us at least a moderate amount of snow. The other models, such as the GFS, take this to our south so that we stay dry. One model, the DGEX, did show 20+ inches for the area this morning, which I consider the outlier solution. It’s still too early to go into more details, but at this time, I would give a 50-50 chance of us getting snow or staying dry for next Sunday.

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