Looks like I caught on last night to the possibility of this storm busting for areas north of central New Jersey. The snow’s northern boundary completely stalled last night in central to northern New Jersey, and while half of northern NJ has yet to see a flake, places barely 15-20 miles south of that area have already been seeing accumulating snow.
The snow has already reached its northernmost extent, and is already starting to move slowly towards the east, meaning that those who didn’t see snow in northern NJ most likely won’t see it, while places from Central NJ further south are going to have very heavy snow bands continue to stall over their area. I would generally expect reports of 15 to 25 inches of snow in that area.
For those wondering when is our next opportunity to actually get snow in the area, that would be between Tuesday and Thursday with our next storm. There can be a lot of uncertainty this far out, but the models have been consistently showing a brief mix to heavy snow event for the area for the past day. Each model takes it on a different track, however. The DGEX takes the low right over us, bringing us a cold rain. Meanwhile, the GGEM and GFS dump over 10 inches of snow in the area. There is time left for the models to continue their trending, but overall this storm has a better chance of bringing us a snowstorm than the past few storms.