Jan 8: Another storm for next weekend?

Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 10s to lower 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow Night: Mostly Clear. Very Cold. Low temperatures will be in the upper 0s to lower 10s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 10s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Sunday: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.

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Storm Verification:

I am going to do this by a few steps, by taking my thoughts from the longer range first, then my shorter range outlooks.

Thoughts from the long range: As the models showed a coastal storm affecting the Interstate 95 corridor, I began hinting about this storm back from my first forecast on December 25, and went into more details on January 2nd, when I said that the pattern is favorable for a coastal storm to track up the East Coast, but due to the uncertainty, I would wait until the shorter range before going into where the storm tracks and how much snow falls.

Shorter Range Thoughts: By January 4th, my confidence was high enough to do an in-depth discussion of the storm, what the models are showing, and what is likely to happen. My thoughts from interpreting the models of a 2-4 inch snowfall west of the Appalachians and less than 2 inches further east were mainly correct, though some areas in the central eastern Mid Atlantic (southern NJ, Delaware, far eastern Maryland) saw slightly over 2 inches due to enhancement from the intensifying storm.

I also correctly expected that the models will not have difficulties with predicting this storm, which is what happened, as from the day I made that post, the models stayed with mainly the same solution.

A map verification will be added later tonight or tomorrow.

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This Weekend:

As the forecast above shows, this weekend will be cold, with low temperatures possibly even reaching the single digits north and west from NYC. High temperatures should be in the 20s across the area. Though unlike the last cold spell, there will not be a lot of wind, so wind chills should not be as cold as last time.

Next Week’s Forecast:

Temperatures will moderate through next week, from below average to near-slightly above average. While high temperatures will start out early next week in the upper 20s to mid 30s, by late next week the whole area should see temperatures in the 30s, with some locations passing 40 degrees. Conditions should remain dry through all of next week.

Another Storm Next Weekend?

By next weekend or early in the week afterwards, another storm could possibly affect the area. The long range GFS model is already showing a storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico next weekend. While this is far out in the long range, one thing I do have a higher confidence on is that other than the potential of this storm tracking offshore, it also has the potential to track inland, meaning that we may get something other than snow.

We are not looking at a massive arctic air mass like we are now, so suppression should not be a problem. In fact, there is not much of a cold air mass coming behind this storm. There will also be a warm up prior to this storm, with temperatures reaching the 40s in parts of the area. And considering other factors, such as the pattern and blocking for this storm not being too favorable, chances of this turning into a snowstorm for the Interstate 95 corridor are not very high at this time.

As of now, I would give this a 50-50 chance of either being a snow storm or a rain/mix storm, though it’s too early to know for sure as this is still in the long range. Stay tuned for updates on this potential storm.

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