Jan 30: Cold Weather Continues, Next Weekend Storm?

Verification For Friday Night: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 0s north and west of NYC, in the upper 0s to lower 10s for the north and west suburbs of NYC, and in the lower to mid 10s for NYC and closer to the coast. I expected wind chills below 0 degrees. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4

Today: Cloudy, with light snow showers south of NYC. Very Cold. High temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. Wind chills below 0 degrees are expected in the morning.

Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Very Cold. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 0s north and west of NYC, in the lower 10s for the north and west suburbs of NYC, and in the mid 10s for NYC and closer to the coast. Wind chills below 0 degrees are possible north and west of NYC.

Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 10s to lower 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Monday: Mostly Sunny. Warmer. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

—————

Short Term Forecast (Saturday to Monday):

As I mentioned last night, there was some uncertainty with the storm, as it took a last minute north trend on the models. This north trend did slightly continue overnight, with one model, the CRAS, even showing moderate snow for the area. That is not too likely, as the air is too dry. Dew points are below 0 degrees while temperatures are in the single digits to lower 10s, and humidity is between 40 and 60 percent across the area. We’d want to see the dew point near the actual temperature in order for it to snow, and increasing humidity.

With this, here is my final forecast for today. North of I-80 should stay dry and mostly cloudy to cloudy with high temperatures in the upper 10s to lower 20s. NYC should stay cloudy with perhaps a snow shower or two possible, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 20s. South of NYC, cloudy skies with scattered snow showers are expected, with perhaps a brief period of light snow near the coast. And from south of Philadelphia to southern NJ, a steady period of light-moderate snow is likely, with 1-2 inches of snow expected.

Tonight will still be very cold, with low temperatures similar to this morning’s temperatures. For tomorrow, mainly sunny skies return, with temperatures rising finally warming past the 30 degree mark in NYC and areas closer to the coast. Monday is even warmer, with high temperatures already in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Medium Range Forecast (Tuesday to Friday):

On Tuesday, high temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. There is still some uncertainty for Wednesday, as the models trended slightly north with the weak storm’s placement, bringing precipitation from southern NJ and further south. At this time, I think that Wednesday should be mostly cloudy with an isolated rain/snow shower possible. Thursday will have partly sunny skies with high temperatures still in the 30s. Friday could warm up some more, with high temperatures potentially returning into the 40s for some areas.

Next Weekend Potential Storm:

The models are still all over the place with the possible storm for next weekend. Overnight, we saw three completely different solutions, with the DGEX taking the storm through NYC, bringing us rain, the GGEM taking the storm through the benchmark bringing us a lot of snow, and the GFS barely even bringing precipitation into Virginia. Expect this variety of model solutions to continue for the short term, and only in about 2-3 days is when the models should probably start getting more consistent with their solutions. Due to the way how storms were this past month, I’d favor a suppressed storm track at this time than anything too close to bring us rain, but it’s still too early to know for sure. Stay tuned for more updates.

Leave a Reply