Jan 27: Brief Rain/Snow Tomorrow, Cold/Dry Weekend

Verification For Tuesday Night: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4

Verification For Today: I expected Mostly Sunny skies, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s for the area. Temperatures were colder than I expected, in the mid to upper 30s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 30s to lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Score: 2/4

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy. Snow showers possible, mixing with rain for NYC and closer to the coast. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. Snow accumulations up to a dusting are possible north and west of NYC.

Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Cold. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 10s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 10s to lower 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. Wind chills in the single digits expected.

Friday: Mostly Sunny. Cold. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.

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Short Term Forecast (Wednesday Night to Friday):

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 20s to lower 30s. For tomorrow, a weak clipper passing to our north will bring a chance of snow showers changing over to rain by noon except for Sussex and Orange counties, where a dusting of snow is possible. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with some areas possibly reaching the mid 40s. Tomorrow night will be much colder after this clipper passes. Temperatures drop into the 10s across the region, with wind chills in the single digits possible. Friday is also very cold, with high temperatures in the 20s across the area. Friday night will be partly cloudy and also cold, with low temperatures in the upper 0s to lower 10s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 10s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Medium Range Forecast (Saturday to Tuesday):

As the storm passes to our south on Saturday, this weekend will be dry yet very cold. High temperatures will be similar to, if not slightly colder than Friday’s highs. Saturday night will not be as cold as Friday night, with temperatures similar to tomorrow night’s temperatures. Sunday will also be slightly warmer, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. This warm up will continue through next week, with highs already returning into the 30s for the area by early next week.

What Happened To The Weekend Storm?

When I made my first few forecasts for this storm, I did expect a north trend, as the past storms this year favored a north trend. However, then we had quite a surprise, when the models significantly trended south yesterday. The storm suddenly became suppressed and weaker, bringing no precipitation north of Philadelphia. Today, the model runs continued to trend even further south, now giving North Carolina a major winter storm.

There are still some chances that we could see a track slightly further north, as the past few runs of the GFS that showed the snowstorm in North Carolina showed the storm’s current position further south than it actually is as of now. However, this north trend will do no more than bring the NYC area clouds and a slight chance of a snow shower.

Forecast for the Mid Atlantic:

For the rest of the Mid Atlantic, a snowstorm is still expected, possibly a big one. Below are my current thoughts on snow accumulations, please note that this is not final, and these amounts can still change over the next day or two.

Southern parts of Virginia could get the highest totals out of this storm, with 6 to 10 inches possible. Central Virginia along with the central Delmarva peninsula get more moderate snow, with about 3 to 6 inches of snow possible. For Washington DC, a lighter 1 to 3 inch snowfall is possible out of this storm, with places further north getting a few snow showers. Places north of Philadelphia should not be impacted by this storm.

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