Jan 23: Long Range Storminess

Verification for Friday Night: I expected Mostly Clear skies, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, in the lower 20s for the immediate north and west NYC suburbs, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4

Today: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.

Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, in the mid to upper 20s for the immediate north and west NYC suburbs, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy. A chance of showers after 3 PM. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 40s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow Night: Rain, heavy at times. Thunderstorms also possible. Low temperatures will be steady from Sunday’s highs, and rise after midnight into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Monday: Rain and thunderstorms, heavy at times, mainly before noon. Warmer. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s across the area. Rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch possible.

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Short Term Forecast (Saturday to Monday):

Today will be mainly sunny, with temperatures being slightly colder than yesterday, in the upper 30s to lower 40s. As a storm approaches from our west, temperatures on Sunday will warm into the lower to mid 40s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. Sunday will be cloudy, with showers starting from noon-3 PM from west to east. These showers then intensify overnight into moderate to heavy rain, with thunderstorms also possible. The rain and thunderstorms continue overnight until Monday afternoon before ending, with rainfall totals from 1.5 to 2.5 inches possible, with locally lower or higher amounts depending on where the heaviest rain falls. With this much rain, flooding is a possibility.

Temperatures will also start rising on Sunday night and peak during Monday, in the lower to mid 50s further north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 50s for the north and west suburbs, NYC and closer to the coast, and some places could also reach the lower 60s, something not seen since early December. Monday night will then be colder with low temperatures returning into the 30s.

Medium Range Forecast (Tuesday to Friday):

As Monday’s storm draws in much colder temperatures, Tuesday will have more sunshine again with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s. As we will also have a fresh supply of cold air in the Great Lakes and Midwest, which we did not have since the warm up started, this will allow temperatures to continue cooling down. Wednesday’s high temperatures will be back into the 30s, and by Thursday, the interior may see high temperatures in the 20s, which was not seen for more than a week. Friday will have around the same temperatures as Thursday did, if not slightly warmer.

Long Range Forecast:

Then, as I said yesterday, we have a very interesting time period ahead. A storm has been shown to enter the US coast through California by late next week or early next weekend. This storm is then likely to move through the southern part of the US, but where it ends next is a question. The models are having a hard time handling this storm, with solutions varying from a storm tracking through the Great Lakes to a storm that stays well to our south. However, what is different from this storm than the previous storms is that the pattern is much better. The set up for this storm is also going to be very favorable, preventing this storm from going too far inland, and it will be cold, so we don’t have the problem with a lack of cold air. So while we will probably have to wait a few days before the models get a better handle of this time period, we also need to keep track of this storm as it could end up affecting the area.

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