Jan 22: Monday’s Heavy Rain, Longer Range

Verification for Thursday Night: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. For the interior locations, this mainly verified though some places had lows in the mid 20s, however for the coastal locations due to urban heat island, this busted as these locations stayed much warmer, in the lower to mid 30s.
Score: 2/4

Verification for Today: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s across the area. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4

Tonight: Mostly Clear. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, in the lower 20s for the immediate north and west NYC suburbs, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.

Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, in the mid to upper 20s for the immediate north and west NYC suburbs, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Sunday: Mostly Cloudy. A chance of showers after 3 PM. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 40s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Sunday Night: Rain, heavy at times. Thunderstorms also possible. Low temperatures will be steady from Sunday’s highs, and rise after midnight into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible.

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Short Term Forecast (Friday Night to Sunday):

As skies clear tonight, more cooling takes place, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, in the lower 20s for the immediate north and west NYC suburbs, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. Tomorrow will be mainly sunny, with temperatures being slightly colder than today, in the upper 30s to lower 40s. As a storm approaches from our west, temperatures on Sunday will warm into the lower to mid 40s with cloudy skies, and showers possible after 3 PM.

Medium Range Forecast (Monday to Thursday):

The storm will continue to impact the area until Monday. As the cold front of the storm passes through the region, heavy rain will fall with thunderstorms also possible, however any thunderstorm should not be severe. During this time, temperatures will also rise overnight. The rain will then end Monday morning to early afternoon with a total of 1 to 2 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts. Flooding is possible in some locations. High temperatures will also then peak on Monday morning and afternoon, with high temperaures in the upper 40s to lower 50s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 50s for NYC and closer to the coast.

As this storm draws in much colder temperatures, Tuesday will have more sunshine again with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s. As we will also have a fresh supply of cold air in the Great Lakes and Midwest, which we did not have since the warm up started, this will allow temperatures to continue cooling down. Wednesday’s high temperatures will be back into the 30s, and by Thursday, the interior may see high temperatures in the 20s, which was not seen for more than a week.

Long Range Update and Possible Storm:

The long range is when things get very interesting for us once again. We now have a fresh supply of cold air to our north and west, which will allow any storm moving through to take in cold air, so if we get a coastal low, the area would see frozen precipitation from it, unlike the previous storms where there was no cold air to work with and we still saw rain from a track that would be supportive of a snowstorm. The pattern will also be more favorable, with a trough returning to the East (-NAO/+PNA pattern). And with this in place, we have a storm developing in the United States that could affect the area between January 29 and February 2. Details are still unclear of this storm, as models are having a hard time handling this storm considering how far out this is, but this time period is one to watch out for our next storm potential.

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