Jan 20: Friday Storm Unlikely, Long Range

Verification For Tuesday Night: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4

Verification For Today: I expected Partly Sunny skies, with high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area. The forecast verified, except for a few parts of the area that reached the mid 40s.
Score: 4/4

Tonight: Mostly Clear. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow: Mostly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.

Tomorrow Night: Mostly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Friday: Cloudy. Light rain or snow showers possible. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.

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Friday Storm Unlikely:

While at first, it seemed as if the models were about to trend back north and affect the area, and some did even trend slightly north, the forecast models took a significant trend to the south, now not even impacting the New York City area along with northern New Jersey, but barely even impacting Philadelphia. There is a model consensus for this to stay to our south, so it does not look likely that we will have any impact of more than a few rain or snow showers with this storm. Afterwards, Saturday will be mainly sunny with temperatures going back into the 40s.

Heavy Rain Threat For Monday:

The forecast remains unchanged from yesterday’s forecast, however the models are now hinting at a heavy rain event, along with unusually mild temperatures. After highs on Sunday peaking in the mid 40s, temperatures will remain steady through the evening, and as the storm’s cold front approaches the area, we will start to see rain, heavy at times. Through the overnight hours, temperatures will rise, and peak in the mid to upper 50s during Monday morning and afternoon, when the storm exits the area. The forecast models are showing the potential of up to 2 inches of rain with this storm, and at this time I am thinking that 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible with this storm. Flooding could be a concern for some areas.

After this storm, it will get colder, but the question is how cold will it get. The latest models have backed away from any significant cold and take temperatures to at least seasonal. While I think that temperatures will possibly be slightly below average, we are not looking at any arctic cold outbreak until February, if we even see another one this winter. Another storm could then affect the area between January 29 and February 1.

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