Jan 19: Friday Storm Update

Verification For Monday: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. For NYC and closer to the coast, it was a little warmer than the forecast, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. However, for inland locations, temperatures were much warmer, also in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Score: 2/4

Verification For Monday Night: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast mainly verified.
Score: 4/4

Verification For Today: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies with scattered rain/snow showers after noon. I expected high temperatures to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s north and west of NYC, and in the lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. For inland locations, the forecast verified, however NYC and areas closer to the coast had highs in the mid 40s instead of the lower 40s.
Score: 3/4

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow: Partly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.

Tomorrow Night: Mostly Clear. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Thursday: Partly Sunny. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.

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Update on Friday’s Storm:

As I mentioned yesterday, a storm will impact the Mid Atlantic region on Friday. However, during today’s runs, the forecast models have trended further south with this storm, to the point that it does not impact the area at all, and even barely has an impact in Philadelphia. Despite the models having a general agreement on this staying to our south, it is not very likely that this exact solution will happen when we are 3 days away from this storm, so some changes are still possible.

This storm is currently expected to impact Washington DC with a moderate wintry mix, Philadelphia with a light wintry mix, and NYC with nothing or a few rain/snow showers. While I do think it will be further north than that, I do not think that it will be by a lot. So at this time, I am expecting light rain/snow showers for Friday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.

Longer Range Update:

After this storm, Saturday will still be chilly with highs near 40. By Sunday, however, as a storm moves far to our north and west, temperatures will slowly warm, with highs in the mid to upper 40s on Sunday. As the storm’s cold front reaches the area, rain will fall from Sunday night to Monday morning, possibly heavy at times. Temperatures will be near steady or possibly rising on Sunday night to peak in the mid to possibly upper 50s for Monday morning to afternoon, unusually warm for this time of the year.

After this storm, it will be colder, with highs on Tuesday returning into the 40s. Afterwards, high temperatures could probably drop even further into the 30s, however there is uncertainty on the time period afterwards, concerning how long this cold lasts, if we get another warm up afterwards, and if any snowstorm comes during this time period.

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