Jan 15: Stormy Pattern Develops

Overall Verification Score: I am going to start doing a verification score system, out of possible 4 points (6 points during precipitation events). Below is how the forecasts will be verified:

2 points for correct forecast
1 point for slightly off
0 points for way off

Maximum: 2 points for temperatures, 2 points for conditions, 2 points for precipitation (if any).

Verification For Wednesday Night: I expected Mostly Clear skies, with low temperatures in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. While the temperatures north and west of NYC verified, for NYC the forecast was too cold, with Central Park reporting a low near 30 degrees.
Score: 3/4

Verification For Thursday: I expected Mostly Sunny skies, with high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the region. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4

Verification For Thursday Night: I expected Mostly Clear skies, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. My forecast was a little warmer than the actual temperatures, with interior areas seeing lows in the upper 10s to lower 20s, and NYC and closer to the coast having lows in the mid to upper 20s.
Score: 3/4

Verification For Today: I expected Mostly Sunny skies, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4

—————

Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy. Mild. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 40s to possibly lower 50s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow Night: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Sunday: Cloudy. Showers starting after 12-3 PM. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s north and west of NYC, and in the upper 30s to lower 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. Rainfall amounts will be less than 0.2 inch.

Sunday Night: Heavy Rain. Snow and sleet may mix in at times for Sussex and Orange counties. Low temperatures will be nearly steady in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. Rainfall amounts will be between 1 and 2 inches.

—————

Weekend Storm:

Looks like the storm is coming in further west and stronger than was originally expected. Also, as this is coming out of the Gulf of Mexico loaded with moisture, this should be a very wet storm, meaning that there will be a lot of precipitation with this. However, as the storm is further west, it is also warmer than originally expected. And as at first, we were looking at a mix of rain and snow, now we are looking at rain for the whole area except for interior areas (Sussex/Orange counties), where the potential for snow and ice remains. However, I do not think that more than 1-2 inches of snow/ice will fall anywhere in the area.

During Sunday night, the storm tracking west of the Appalachian Mountains is expected to transfer its energy to another intensifying storm, however this storm will move almost inland, almost hugging the coast. Heavy rain will overspread the area, with 1 to 2 inches possible by the time that the storm ends on Monday morning.

After this storm, conditions clear and temperatures generally stay in the 30s and 40s through early next week.

Second Storm: Thursday-Saturday Next Week (Jan 21-23)

During Wednesday, we could see the mild temperatures easing up a little, with highs returning generally into the 30s. However, we have ourselves another storm for late next week to early next weekend. Parts of the storm that will affect California during mid week could help form this storm, which at this time appears to form also near the Gulf of Mexico, however it could end up being further north/south than currently modeled. The GFS model takes this storm northeast, and with barely enough cold air, brings snow to the area. Another model, the DGEX, takes this storm out to sea without affecting us.

However, as there is still no major pattern change yet, we could still have the problem of a lack of cold air for this storm. The pattern for this storm is expected to be a -PNA (west coast trough), a +NAO, and a neutral AO, which is not too favorable for an East Coast snowstorm, however the pattern is showing signs of starting to turn around by this time period. While we still have a lot of time to watch this storm, chances are that this will probably not turn into a major snowstorm for the area.

Potential Third Storm and Longer Range

The next potential for a storm exists during January 25-27. Details are still unknown at this time range, however according to the pattern and the forecast models, this storm has the potential to turn the pattern colder. When we have the mild conditions next week, this can actually be considered a “pattern reload”, as by the time that February comes, we are likely to return to the cold. Whether we see a snowy pattern or not is still a question.

Leave a Reply