Verification for Monday Night: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies with low temperatures in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. While I was right for NYC’s temps, I was too cold for the interior. The actual lows there were also in the lower to mid 20s, slightly warmer than what I expected.
Verification for Today: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies with high temperatures in the lower to mid 30s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. Other than the cloud cover being mostly sunny, the temperatures were correct.
Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 10s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Tomorrow: Partly Cloudy. High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s across the region.
Tomorrow Night: Mostly Clear. Low temperatures will be in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.
Thursday: Mostly Sunny. Warmer. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the region.
Poll Update: Due to the remaining uncertainty about the storm and the fact that there will be more options than just rain or snow, I decided to add a second poll, so the current poll will be about the storm track and the second poll will be for precipitation type. Both polls will close on Friday afternoon.
I am still keeping my discussion from yesterday at this time. The models have trended towards the suppressed solution at this time, with the storm getting no further north than Virginia. I am thinking that it does end up being further north than that, though the question is how far north, and what the precipitation type will be for the area.
One problem that we have with this storm is the amount of warm air with this storm. High temperatures are also expected to be in the 30s, which is typically not supportive of seeing plain snow. Due to the pattern change that is starting to develop, we do not have a source of major cold air that the storm can draw in. And even if there was, the storm would not be able to pull in too much cold air as it is shown to be relatively weak.
Another run showing the problem with the warm temperatures is the most recent 18z GFS run. As it showed, the storm did begin trending further north, however the run was much warmer than previous runs, bringing mainly rain to the area.
At this time, I am going for something in between my two scenario maps from yesterday. A scenario where we do get the storm to bring precipitation to the area, but it should be in the form of rain/snow. Though it will not be until at least late this week when we have a much better idea of how this storm will affect the area.
Long Range Update: January 20 through February 5
After this storm that we have, indications are that the pattern will turn warmer than average for the eastern 2/3 of the US. The cold is going to be retreating into Canada, while mild temperatures (warm over the South) develop and push north and east, reaching our area around or a little after January 20.
With this pattern, a west coast trough will develop, resulting in colder and much wetter conditions for the West as the storm track goes through California. This, however, will result in a much further west storm track, with a potential storm around January 24-26th also possibly taking this track, which would be through the northern Midwest or the Great Lakes. The result would be much warmer conditions for us, with high temperatures warming into the 40s and 50s.
However, by late January or early February, signs are that this pattern might try to break down. While still uncertain due to being in the longer range, if this does happen, then we may return to a possibly cold and snowy pattern, though it should not be as cold as this month was up to now.