Forecast and Storm Verifications

Verification For Saturday: I expected Mostly Sunny skies, with high temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4

Verification For Saturday Night: I expected Partly Cloudy skies, with low temperatures in the upper 10s to lower 20s north and west of NYC, in the mid to upper 20s for the immediate north and west NYC suburbs, and in the upper 20s to lower 30s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast verified.
Score: 4/4

Verification For Sunday: I expected Mostly Cloudy skies with afternoon showers possible, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 40s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 40s for NYC and closer to the coast. The forecast mainly verified, as temperatures did keep rising through the day and peaked at the end of the day.
Score: 4/4

Verification For Sunday Night: I expected Rain, heavy at times, with low temperatures rising into the upper 40s to lower 50s. I expected rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches. While the temperature forecast was mainly correct, the heavy rain did not fall during Sunday night, but rather during Monday.
Score: 3/4

Verification For Today: I expected Rain and thunderstorms, heavy at times, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s across the area. I expected rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch. While the rainfall amounts were higher, in the 1 to 2 inch range, the temperatures verified.
Score: 3/4

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January 24-25 Storm Verification:

This storm is so far my best forecasted one since I started this blog in late December.

I first mentioned the possibility of this storm around January 12, stating that it would track through the Great Lakes and bring temperatures into the 40s and 50s, which was already a correct call. I went into more details starting on January 18, saying that the storm would bring temperatures into the 50s with rain on Monday. I mainly stayed consistent with my temperature forecasts for this storm, and adding the heavy rain mention on January 19. The most accurate part of my forecast for this storm was my temperature forecast, expecting high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s, long before some forecasts started showing temperatures that high.

One part I did bust though was the wind mention. I only mentioned the possibility of it being windy once, that was in my details for the rain map I made on Saturday. I did not mention the strong winds that were a part of today’s storm. Overall, if I was to grade myself on my forecasts for this storm, I would give my forecasts an A-.

Today’s update will be posted shortly, including a discussion about next weekend’s potential storm.

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