December 25: Heavy rain and ice threat for tomorrow, New Year’s Day storm?

To start off with my first forecast, below is my forecast for today and tomorrow in the area. In some cases, such as today, I use the Garden State Parkway and I-87 in southeastern NY as the dividing line for different types of weather, which is referred to as northwest or southeast of GSP/I-87.

Today: Cloudy skies are expected across the area, with a few showers possible after 2 PM. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area.

Tonight: Periods of rain, mainly after midnight. Freezing rain will fall north and west of GSP/I-87. Low temperatures will be steady in the mid to upper 30s near NYC, and in the low 30s further inland. Rainfall amounts will be between a quarter and a half of an inch.

Tomorrow: Rain, heavy at times. Freezing rain may mix before 9 AM northwest of GSP/I-87. High temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s north and west of GSP/I-87, low to mid 40s for the immediate north and west suburbs of NYC, and mid to upper 40s for NYC and areas closer to the coast. Rainfall amounts will be between a half and three quarters of an inch.

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5-Day Forecast Update: An intense storm currently located far to our west will impact our area until late tomorrow night. Precipitation will enter the area late this afternoon to the early evening hours, and intensify throughout the night. Further inland away from New York City, it will be cold enough for freezing rain to fall, with ice amounts between 0.1 and 0.2 inch, enough to cause dangerous road conditions. As the storm pulls warmer air into the area, any freezing rain will change over to rain by tomorrow morning, with temperatures rising into the 40s except for the interior areas in the higher elevations. There is the potential for some flooding, as the heavy rain will melt most of the remaining snow cover from last weekend’s snowstorm. After falling heavy at times tomorrow, the rain will taper off tomorrow night, with total rainfall amounts generally near an inch, locally near two inches.

A risk of showers remains on Saturday with mostly cloudy skies, however temperatures will be unusually mild, in the mid to upper 40s. Locations closer to New York City may even reach 50 degrees. Light snow could possibly develop on Sunday night and Monday, however very little accumulation will be seen with this potential light snow event. Monday will then begin the transition to colder weather, with highs only in the mid to upper 30s. In fact, overnight temperatures continue to drop even more into the 10s for the interior and 20s elsewhere. Tuesday will be the coldest day of the week, with highs only in the mid to upper 20s. Coastal locations may briefly reach 30 degrees.

Long Range Update: Temperatures through the week will remain cold, however temperatures will moderate some, with highs back into the 30s. Late next week, a weak storm is expected to develop in the South and head out to sea, but that’s not the end of it. Another storm, stronger than the first one, may then develop on New Year’s Day, and the upcoming pattern by that time period (neutral to positive PNA, -NAO and -AO) will be favorable for this storm to affect the area, possibly in the form of snow. There is still uncertainty on this storm, however it is a time period to keep an eye on. Stay tuned.

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