Dec 30: Stormy late week, cold returns

Forecast verification for yesterday:

Forecast for Tuesday: I originally expected high temperatures to be in the low 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid 20s for NYC and closer to the coast. While the actual 24 hour highs peaked around midnight in the upper 20s to low 30s, the mid day high temperatures were in the upper 10s inland, lower 20s for NYC and the closer suburbs, and mid 20s near the coast, so verification was not so bad.

Verification for Tuesday Night: I expected low temperatures to be in the upper single digits to lower 10s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 10s in NYC and closer to the coast. While most of the interior area away from NYC did not see lows below 10 degrees, low temperatures were in the low 10s north and west of NYC, and in the mid 10s for NYC. Both of these lows were in the range of my forecast, so my forecast also verified well.

Today: Mostly Sunny skies. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tonight: Increasing Clouds. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 20s north and west of NYC, and in the mid to upper 20s for NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow: Cloudy. A few snow showers will start for the area, changing over to light rain for the coast, a mix of rain and snow for NYC and its suburbs, with a snow and sleet mix north and west of GSP/I-87 (Garden State Parkway, Interstate 87). High temperatures will be in the mid 30s north and west of GSP/I-87, and in the mid to upper 30s elsewhere except for the coast, in the upper 30s to lower 40s. A light snow and sleet accumulation is possible.

Tomorrow Night: Cloudy. Scattered rain showers, mixing with snow north and west of GSP/I-87. temperatures will be in the in the upper 20s to lower 30s north and west of NYC, and in the lower to mid 30s for NYC and closer to the coast.

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The poll for the prediction of the New Year’s Storm has closed. Below are the final results, out of a total of 39 votes:

Rain: 3 votes (7%)
Mix of rain, snow, sleet: 15 votes (38%)
Snow: 14 votes (35%)
Blizzard: 7 votes (17%)

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Update on the Late Week Storm:

There is still a lot of uncertainty about this storm, however we are slowly starting to get an idea of what could happen with the first part of the storm. This storm is currently expected to come in two waves, the first one on Thursday and the second one on Friday, with a lull in precipitation possible overnight on Thursday. The first storm will come when some of the cold is still in place, however it will remove the cold air. Precipitation may start as virga at first, meaning precipitation that is falling in the air and not reaching the ground, due to the low dew points, however any precipitation to start should be in the form of snow showers. Afterwards, we see a transition to rain near the coast, with a wintry mix for NYC and closer areas, with mainly snow and sleet for the interior. This is going to be a quick event, with any precipitation falling generally being light to occasionally moderate, with the interior areas possibly picking up a light accumulation of snow and sleet.

For the second part of the storm on Friday, there is still too much uncertainty to be able to make a clear forecast. Unfortunately, the forecast models are having issues handling the second storm, and they may not agree on a solution until the storm is already reaching the area. In this case, we would need to look at the actual observations, compare it to the forecast models, and see if there are any differences and what that might mean for the forecast. Stay tuned for further updates to be made tomorrow or possibly later today.

Long Range Update: After this storm, it’s going to turn cold again. for Saturday, scattered snow showers are possible, with both Saturday and Sunday having windy conditions and highs in the 20s, Sunday being the colder day. By the early week, temperatures might warm a little into the 30s, and by late next week, the forecast models are hinting at another storm that might affect the area.

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