Dec 26: The cold returns, will the snow return?

Verification of my forecast from yesterday:

High temperatures in Bergen County, northwest of NYC were in the upper 30s, with NYC near 40 degrees, which followed my forecast. Lows overnight were mainly steady and started rising after midnight, from the mid to upper 30s, which I correctly forecasted the temperatures but did not mention that they were going to rise.

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy skies with rain ending in the evening hours. Low temperatures will be steady in the mid to upper 40s northwest of NYC and in the upper 40s to lower 50s near NYC and closer to the coast.

Tomorrow: Mostly Cloudy skies. Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s northwest of NYC, and in the upper 40s to lower 50s near NYC and closer to the coast. Temperatures will start dropping early in the afternoon.

Tomorrow Night: Cloudy skies with areas of light snow after midnight, mixing with rain near the coast. Lows will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s northwest of NYC, and in the low to mid 30s near NYC and closer to the coast. A dusting of snow is possible in the higher elevations further north and west.

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5-Day Forecast Update: Tomorrow will be a very nice day across the area, with highs breaking the 50 degree mark in some areas closer to the coast. But enjoy tomorrow while you can, because afterwards, things get colder. It appears that we are likely going to see snow showers to start Monday, with a light dusting of snow possible further inland, away from NYC. After this snow ends, temperatures begin rapidly dropping, with overnight lows dropping below 20 degrees north and west of NYC. Tuesday will be the coldest day yet, with highs in the mid to upper 20s for NYC, and low to mid 20s further north and west. Wednesday will still be very cold, with NYC and areas closer to the coast briefly reaching the 30 degree mark.

New Year’s Day Storm?
As I mentioned yesterday, there is the threat of a storm for New Year’s Day. The models are still showing the storm, with a few models even showing a full blown blizzard for the area. The pattern will certainly be favorable for a storm to affect the area, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), which when negative can favor a cold pattern over the East Coast, will be negative, can also suggest that the storm is unlikely to track too close to bring plain rain to the area.

My current take on this time frame is that Thursday will have highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s with snow and rain approaching from the southwest, and the worst part of the storm will be on Friday, even though that may change as there are still timing issues with the storm. The storm will likely start out with mainly snow, though we may get mixing on Friday. It is still too early to determine which area gets what kind of precipitation, though when the forecast for this storm becomes clearer I will make a scenario map for this storm. Stay tuned for further updates on this potential snowstorm.

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