Apr 18

April 18, 2014: Warmer Weekend Expected

Forecast Highlights:

temp25A high pressure remains anchored northeast of New England, placing the area under an onshore flow and below normal temperatures over the last several days. A dry cold front passing through tonight will temporarily break the onshore flow, with temperatures warming back up into the 60s for the weekend into Monday, followed by a stronger cold front with rain on Tuesday bringing another round of below normal temperatures (image credit: PSU e-Wall).

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Apr 17

April 17, 2014: Slow Warm Up Expected

Forecast Highlights:

gfs_4.17Colder than average temperatures continued across the region with an onshore flow, with highs peaking in the mid-upper 40s near and east of NYC and the low 50s inland. After another cold night inland, a gradual warming trend is expected to continue with highs returning into the low 60s by Saturday, but with no widespread rain event in sight through at least late next week.

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Apr 16

April 16, 2014: Below Average Temps Return

Forecast Highlights:

temp10_2After yesterday’s anomalously late snow and sleet event, with up to an inch of snow for most locations and 2 inches inland only hours after temperatures peaked in the 60s with thunderstorms, colder than average temperatures have returned into the region with highs today only having peaked in the 40s. A slow warming trend will continue through the rest of the week and weekend but with no significant warmth likely until the end of the month or early May.

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Apr 15

April 15, 2014 Storm Updates

Occasional storm updates on today’s storm will be posted below, ranging from rain, wind and thunderstorms during the day to cold temperatures, snow and sleet in the evening.

 

12:45 AM: Snow, Sleet Continue

nerad254As of 12am, the cold front has already tracked offshore, with a strong cold air mass surging into the region; precipitation remains slow to depart, however, with precipitation type primarily as snow and sleet for most locations except for central-eastern LI/CT which are gradually starting to mix with sleet. A particularly heavy band of precipitation is situated over NE NJ and NYC, but with sleet rather than snow reported under this band. Most locations north and west of NYC so far have seen generally up to an inch of snow, with locally higher totals towards interior NW NJ/SE NY. Despite temperatures having peaked in the 70s and 80s as recently as yesterday, the sharp drop in temperatures along with the snow/sleet mix is leading to hazardous road conditions with wet snow and ice. Snow has mostly ended in NW NJ and Orange county, with the back end of the precipitation shield to continue gradually shifting east, reaching NYC by at least 2am and LI/CT by 3-4am.

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Apr 14

April 14, 2014: Warmth Ends on Tues With Rain/Thunder

Forecast Highlights:

gfs_4.14Warmer than average temperatures continued inland of NYC again, peaking in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees, while coastal locations remained with a cooler onshore flow. Mild temperatures will continue into Tuesday evening, when a strong cold front will produce heavy rain, thunder and strong wind gusts, followed by a possible changeover to light snow/sleet as temperatures crash into the 30s and 20s, marking a return to below normal temperatures for the rest of the week.

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Apr 13

April 13, 2014: Cooler Week Ahead

Forecast Highlights:

temp51Today brought an early preview of summer west of NYC with highs in the 80s, while coastal locations remained under an onshore flow with highs struggling to pass the low 60s. Following today, however, the warmth will gradually moderate until Tuesday night, when a strong cold front will produce heavy rain/thunder with temperatures crashing into the 30s and 20s overnight. The remainder of the week will feature below average temperatures with highs back into the 40s and 50s.

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Apr 12

April 12, 2014: Warmth Continues Until Tuesday

Notice

Sunday, 4/13 morning update: Temperatures today are likely to verify slightly higher than forecast yesterday, with widespread low 80s possible west of NYC.

Forecast Highlights:

gfs_namer_072_850_temp_mslp_precipAbove average temperatures continued today with highs in the mid-upper 60s near coastal locations and low 70s elsewhere. A warm air mass will remain in place through Tuesday with highs generally in the 70s from NYC and further inland, with a strong cold front then expected to move through with heavy rain. Much cooler temperatures peaking in the 50s for highs and 30s for lows are expected for the remainder of the week into next weekend (image credit: NCEP MAG).

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Apr 11

April 11, 2014: Warmth Continues This Weekend

Forecast Highlights:

tempA cold front approached the area today, with clearing skies and a warm air mass aloft allowing for highs to peak in the low-mid 70s near NYC and NE NJ. Mild temperatures will continue inland of NYC this weekend into Monday before a strong cold front moves through on Tuesday, producing heavy rain followed by more persistent below average temperatures for the rest of next week into next weekend (image credit: PSU e-Wall, 4k NAM modeled highs for Sunday).

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Apr 11

April 11, 2014 Noon Update

3:10 PM: Highs Warmer Than Previously Forecast

rtma_midatl_000_2m_tempAs of this afternoon, a cold front is approaching the area, currently near northeastern Pennsylvania, slowing down until a shortwave approaches later this evening and aids in pushing the wave of rain currently over Pennsylvania east through the area tonight. Originally, widespread cloud cover was anticipated to cover the area with high temperatures struggling to rise above the mid-upper 60s, although there were stronger indications this morning from the latest data at that time, including sufficient clearing of cloud cover ahead of the cold front, a southwesterly wind and a warm air mass aloft with temperatures at the 850 millibar layer near 8-10C, supporting a bust potential for high temperatures to verify higher than forecast, and a note was made this morning for high temperatures to reach the low to mid 70s in northeast NJ and NYC. The bust risk ended up verifying as cloud cover cleared and temperatures surged into the low-mid 70s in northeast NJ and NYC, exceeding 75 degrees in parts of northeast NJ, and in the mid 60s to low 70s elsewhere. Temperatures as of 3pm include 67 degrees in Sussex, NJ; 76 degrees in Newark, NJ; 74 degrees in Central Park; and 67 degrees in Islip, NY. This area of warmer temperatures can be seen to the left from the latest RTMA analysis from the NCEP Model Analyses and Guidance, depicting estimated 2m temperatures at 18z (2pm EDT).

northeast2Additional slight warming is possible before the aforementioned wave of rain over Pennsylvania, depicted to the left on the latest regional radar from the National Weather Service, which will continue to spread east and affect the area this evening with periods of moderate rain, mainly before 12-2am. Rain totals of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are expected at this time, with some of the short range model guidance indicating locally higher amounts north and west of NYC. The wave of low pressure will depart the region tonight, giving way to more sunshine on Saturday. Unlike today, slightly cooler temperatures aloft are expected along with light winds supporting a sea breeze developing in Long Island, spreading towards NYC, NE NJ and CT by the mid-late afternoon bringing an early end to the temperature rise, a significant warm bust is not anticipated, although temperatures are nonetheless expected to peak in the mid to upper 60s for most locations, with areas of low 70s west of NYC. More information will be posted with the next forecast discussion to be posted this evening.

Apr 10

April 10, 2014: Rain Returns Early Next Week

Notice

4/11 Morning Update: Temperatures today have the potential to bust warmer than forecast – highs may reach the low to perhaps mid 70s in northeast NJ and NYC this afternoon.

Forecast Highlights:

rad31Temperatures today reached the low-mid 60s inland with a breezy southwesterly wind, but struggled to rise above the low-mid 50s in Long Island and CT with the influence of an onshore southerly flow, which will remain the main theme over the next several days. A weakening cold front will produce scattered showers mainly on Friday evening, followed by more sunshine for the weekend, but with a stronger cold front on Tuesday bringing back below average temperatures for the rest of next week (image credit: PSU e-Wall).

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