Forecast Highlights: The last few days have been highlighted by abnormally drastic shifts in the model guidance regarding hurricane Joaquin, the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean since 2010, which have since largely settled on …
Forecast Highlights: Following several months of relative inactivity, highlighted by well above normal temperatures and drier than normal conditions with much of the tri-state area in a drought, two major rain events are expected to …
Forecast Highlights: The anomalous warm and dry pattern observed throughout this month and much of August continues unabated, with temperatures over 5-7 degrees above normal and only 4 out of 33 days having recorded measurable …
Forecast Highlights: September 2015 started off on an anomalously warm note, with the first week of the month averaging out to at least 5 to 8 degrees above normal. The persistence of upper-level ridging has …
Following several months of relative inactivity, highlighted by well above normal temperatures and drier than normal conditions with much of the tri-state area in a drought, two major rain events are expected to affect the region this week, ending a 2+ week stretch of no rain. Multiple rounds of rain are expected, especially on Wednesday morning and possibly during the weekend, resulting from the interaction of a deep trough and Tropical Storm Joaquin, potentially amounting to several inches of rain which will aid in easing the drought but with the risk of significant heavy rainfall and storm surge along the coast in the worst case scenario.
The anomalous warm and dry pattern observed throughout this month and much of August continues unabated, with temperatures over 5-7 degrees above normal and only 4 out of 33 days having recorded measurable rain at Central Park. Little relief is in sight with the upper-level ridge persisting through the remainder of the month, although the possibility of at least some rain can’t be ruled out towards September 27-30 with a weak coastal low pressure.
September 2015 started off on an anomalously warm note, with the first week of the month averaging out to at least 5 to 8 degrees above normal. The persistence of upper-level ridging has further suppressed any rain potentials, with the last significant rain event having occurred nearly a month ago. Short-term relief from the heat and drought is on the way, however, as the trough axis shifts eastward towards the Great Lakes, accompanied by a slow frontal passage on Thursday accompanied by much cooler temperatures and potentially heavy rain.
Little relief is expected from the ongoing drought over portions of the area as an anomalously strong upper-level ridge becomes stationed over the eastern half of the US through at least the next 1-2 weeks. With the exception of a possible backdoor cold front late next week, little to no rain is expected during this upcoming period with above to well above normal temperatures, returning into the 90s in parts of the area in the first half of the upcoming week and potentially becoming the first September heat wave since 2010.
A weak cold front moved through the region today, and brought little relief from the expanding abnormally dry conditions as the majority of the rain stayed well inland. As an upper level trough continues to slowly expand eastward, temperatures will cool down on Wednesday and Thursday, only peaking in the upper 70s to low 80s, before rebounding into the upper 80s by the weekend with a risk of isolated thunderstorms, and possibly returning into the 90s by next week with no significant rain event in sight at this time.
Temperatures climbed into the 90s for the 3rd consecutive day for most of the tri-state area yesterday, the first such occurrence this month and in Central Park’s case, the first heat wave since July 2013. Temperatures will gradually cool off as mid-level ridging shifts offshore and a low-level onshore flow becomes established, ahead of a slow late-week frontal passage which may deliver some rain but likely fail to reverse the continued abnormally dry conditions.
NYC Area Weather has been dedicated to posting in-depth analyses of current and forecast weather in the tri-state area and across the northeastern United States for the last several years, with a goal of providing objective detailed forecasts for the short and medium range. I sincerely appreciate the support of those who have followed the blog over the years, as otherwise it would not have persisted for this long.
Over the last several months, however, the vision for the future of this blog has changed. While my intention is to continue to provide detailed forecast analyses for the tri-state area, the format of the posts and other aspects of the blog will be revised in the coming months.
In the meantime, starting from Monday, 8/17, forecast analyses will be posted at least once every 3 days, except for significant weather events in which more frequent updates will be posted, although for the next several months I will be revamping the blog with a greater emphasis on the detailed meteorological analysis for the Northeast and Mid Atlantic regions, as well as providing storm archives for the tri-state area and model guidance data.
Thank you for following the blog through the years and I hope to continue to provide an outlet for useful meteorological analysis and data through this blog in the future.
July 24, 2015 Blog Notice
In order to have all of the pages back up and functioning normally, as well as a timely addition of new features to the blog that are currently under development, no forecast updates will be posted through Friday, July 31st. Daily forecast updates will remain limited into August as additional features are incorporated into the blog, but are currently planned to resume once all updates to the blog are complete, likely towards late August or September. I apologize for any inconvenience caused by these recent issues.