June 19, 2013: Sunny, Mild Ending To Week

Forecast Highlights:

A cold front moved through the region last night after having produced widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of them strong/severe, especially over northern NJ where 1-2 inches of rain fell and flash flooding was observed. A high pressure building into the region will provide mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures through Saturday, followed by a hot and humid air mass building into the region for next week along with a risk of scattered thunderstorms.

June 18, 2013 Storm Updates

Occasional updates will be posted below on the severe weather event affecting the region today and tonight. Live updates are being posted on Twitter and will continue to be posted throughout the day.

Twitter updates archive

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Final storm rain totals in NYC:

Central Park - 0.20"
JFK Airport - 0.20"
LaGuardia - 0.20"

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Blog Updates: (Regional radar from the National Weather Service)

5:15 PM: Heavy thunderstorms continue to train over west Bergen, SE Passaic, central Morris, south Sussex and north Warren counties in New Jersey along the I-80 corridor, having produced flash flooding with over 1-2" of rain observed in this axis. A flash flood warning issued by the NWS is in effect for this axis through 8:45 PM. This line of storms is slowly sinking south, approaching Hudson, Essex, Morris and Warren counties within the next 1-2 hours. This line is preventing heavy rain from developing to the south, where the I-78 corridor into New York City have seen little rain so far. Occasional rain/thunder will continue in this axis through the evening before ending, with at least 1/4 to locally 1/2 inch of rain expected except for under the aforementioned axis of heavy rain, where up to an additional inch, possibly locally higher, of rain is expected with a continued risk of flash flooding through the evening commute.

Further northeast, a line of heavy thunderstorms is developing over southern CT just north of New Haven. This line is capable of producing heavy rain, gusty winds and flash flooding with up to 1" of rain possible, with the line expected to slowly drop south towards coastal CT.

4:10 PM: Over the last hour, scattered strong storms continued over NE NJ and SE NY, with the most significant storm over eastern Bergen county earlier this afternoon, having produced localized 1-2" rain totals with flash flooding, hail, and gusty winds. Similar conditions were observed in NW Passaic county and central Orange county.

Currently, scattered heavy storms continue over parts of western Bergen, NW Passaic, and central Rockland counties. Meanwhile, the severe thunderstorms over central NJ earlier this afternoon have moved offshore, and widespread moderate to heavy rain with occasional rumbles of thunder is filling in to the north, over northern NJ and NYC. This part of the storm was not modeled well, as some of the shorter range models failed to depict the central NJ storms earlier this afternoon, and the steady Mid Atlantic rainfall was modeled to stay south of the area. The rain and thunder will spread into NYC and Long Island slowly within the next 1-2 hours, with scattered strong storms slowly dropping southeast into southern CT. Occasional periods of rain and thunder are expected to continue through the evening hours, then gradually ending, with at least another 1/4 inch, locally up to/over 1/2 inch, of additional rain expected.

2:25 PM: Scattered storms are currently popping up across parts of the area; today's storms will be very slow moving, with areas of flash flooding likely under the heavier cells. Currently there is a strong cell located in Demarest, NJ drifting NE, producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds and hail; this cell has produced up to 1" of rain so far in NE NJ. Another similar cell is located just south of Warwick, NY and is also slowly drifting to the NE. Additional thunderstorms will continue to develop and expand into the area in the next few hours, and will also be capable of heavy rain and localized flooding.

June 18, 2013: Storms Today, Seasonable Ending To Week

Forecast Highlights:

A cold front that produced isolated thunderstorms yesterday continues to track closer to the area, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon. Behind the cold front, mostly sunny skies will return for the second half of the week with temperatures slightly below average, mostly in the mid 70s-low 80s. A gradual warming trend will continue through early next week, when a heat surge is possible.

June 17, 2013 Brief Update

Forecast Overview:

Today - Tuesday: Warm temperatures will continue today and tomorrow, with partly sunny skies and highs peaking in the low to mid 80s across the area. Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening and again tomorrow, but with most of the storm activity staying south of the area.

Weds - Next Weekend: The system will clear the region by Wednesday, with more sunshine and dry conditions for Wednesday through next weekend. Temperatures will initially start cooler, in the mid to upper 70s on Wednesday, slowly warming up into the low to mid 80s by next weekend. As the next system approaches the central US, showers and storms are likely to return into the region towards early next week; more information will be posted on the longer range outlook with the next full forecast discussion tomorrow.

June 16, 2013: Scattered Storms Through Tuesday

Note: Due to a busy schedule, the blog will only be updated through brief forecast updates today and tomorrow. The next full update will be posted on Tuesday, 6/18/13, with an updated 5-day forecast, storm summaries for previous storms, and storm updates if necessary.


Forecast Overview:

Today - Tuesday: As a low pressure approaches the region, clouds spread into the region with unsettled weather likely to persist through Tuesday. Most models show the heaviest rain staying south of the area, although scattered showers and storms are still expected for the area this evening and again tomorrow and Tuesday. Temperatures are generally expected to peak in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Late Week: A high pressure will spread into the region again behind the storms, with mostly sunny conditions from Weds through next weekend. Temperatures will start out below average, in the mid to upper 70s, gradually rising into the low to mid 80s by next weekend with a risk of rain returning by early next week.

June 15, 2013: Rain, Storms Return Sun-Tues

Forecast Highlights:

A high pressure briefly returns into the region, providing the area with mostly sunny skies and relatively mild temperatures for today and the first half of Sunday, peaking in the mid 70s to low 80s. The dry conditions will be short lasting, however, as scattered storms return into the forecast for late Sunday through Tuesday, followed by drier conditions again for the mid-late week and continued near average temperatures.

June 14, 2013: Dry Weekend, Then Stormy Again

Forecast Highlights:

Rain continued to fall through mid-late last night, with eastern LI and CT continuing to see light rain through this morning. Rain totals were generally between 1 and 1.5 inch, locally as high as 2 inches, although there were some locations with under 1 inch totals as well, especially in parts of Long Island. Scattered showers are expected again today with chilly temperatures, followed by a warmer and sunny weekend but with storms returning once again for next week.