Forecast Highlights: Little relief is expected from the ongoing drought over portions of the area as an anomalously strong upper-level ridge becomes stationed over the eastern half of the US through at least the next …
Forecast Highlights: A weak cold front moved through the region today, and brought little relief from the expanding abnormally dry conditions as the majority of the rain stayed well inland. As an upper level trough …
Forecast Highlights: Temperatures climbed into the 90s for the 3rd consecutive day for most of the tri-state area yesterday, the first such occurrence this month and in Central Park’s case, the first heat wave since …
A weak cold front moved through the region today, and brought little relief from the expanding abnormally dry conditions as the majority of the rain stayed well inland. As an upper level trough continues to slowly expand eastward, temperatures will cool down on Wednesday and Thursday, only peaking in the upper 70s to low 80s, before rebounding into the upper 80s by the weekend with a risk of isolated thunderstorms, and possibly returning into the 90s by next week with no significant rain event in sight at this time.
Temperatures climbed into the 90s for the 3rd consecutive day for most of the tri-state area yesterday, the first such occurrence this month and in Central Park’s case, the first heat wave since July 2013. Temperatures will gradually cool off as mid-level ridging shifts offshore and a low-level onshore flow becomes established, ahead of a slow late-week frontal passage which may deliver some rain but likely fail to reverse the continued abnormally dry conditions.
NYC Area Weather has been dedicated to posting in-depth analyses of current and forecast weather in the tri-state area and across the northeastern United States for the last several years, with a goal of providing objective detailed forecasts for the short and medium range. I sincerely appreciate the support of those who have followed the blog over the years, as otherwise it would not have persisted for this long.
Over the last several months, however, the vision for the future of this blog has changed. While my intention is to continue to provide detailed forecast analyses for the tri-state area, the format of the posts and other aspects of the blog will be revised in the coming months.
In the meantime, starting from Monday, 8/17, forecast analyses will be posted at least once every 3 days, except for significant weather events in which more frequent updates will be posted, although for the next several months I will be revamping the blog with a greater emphasis on the detailed meteorological analysis for the Northeast and Mid Atlantic regions, as well as providing storm archives for the tri-state area and model guidance data.
Thank you for following the blog through the years and I hope to continue to provide an outlet for useful meteorological analysis and data through this blog in the future.
July 24, 2015 Blog Notice
In order to have all of the pages back up and functioning normally, as well as a timely addition of new features to the blog that are currently under development, no forecast updates will be posted through Friday, July 31st. Daily forecast updates will remain limited into August as additional features are incorporated into the blog, but are currently planned to resume once all updates to the blog are complete, likely towards late August or September. I apologize for any inconvenience caused by these recent issues.
A strong mid-level shortwave trough accompanied by a surface low pressure is expected to track through the region this evening, bringing the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms mainly west of NYC late today, capable of producing strong to damaging wind gusts. A weak high pressure will return for Friday through Monday, providing sunshine but gradually warming temperatures ahead of the next frontal passage by the middle of next week.
2:15 PM: Storm Risk Continues Today, Tomorrow
Upton, NY radar imagery from 1911 UTC (3:11 PM EDT), from the College of DuPage.
As of this afternoon, a weak cold front is progressing east through the tri-state area, and is currently positioned over northeast NJ. The environment ahead of this cold front is modestly unstable with CAPE values above 1500 J/kg, supporting the persistence of scattered thunderstorms along the cold front generally tracking towards the ESE. There is a line of heavy thunderstorms currently extending from Clifton, NJ through Paramus, NJ and Rockland county in NY, tracking ESE towards northern Manhattan, Bronx and southern Westchester counties towards 2:30 PM. Another area of scattered thunderstorms is concentrated near Stamford, CT (Fairfield) as well as just west of New Haven, CT. The current environment is not conducive for severe thunderstorms with a lack of strong vertical wind shear, with heavy rainfall up to 1/2 inch the primary risk given a very moist environment with precipitable water values near 2 inches. Most of the storms are likely to end towards 4-5 PM as the front continues to slowly progress east.
A slightly higher risk of strong to locally severe thunderstorms is possible on Thursday as a stronger mid-level shortwave trough and accompanying surface low pressure track through the area during the evening hours. While a very moist environment will persist with precipitable water values well over 2 inches, once again contributing to a heavy rain risk, stronger vertical wind shear is anticipated given the mid-level wind maximum accompanying the shortwave trough, up to 45-50 knots at 700 hPa, along with a low-level directional shear component, favoring the potential for strong wind gusts over 40-50 mph primarily west and south of NYC. More information will be posted later tonight or on Thursday morning.
A short range shift in the forecast is increasing the likelihood of a wet and chilly 4th of July in NYC, as a wave of low pressure develops farther north than previously forecast with rain spreading through the tri-state area on Saturday. A brief period of drier and warmer conditions is expected for Sunday and Monday before the potential for thunderstorms increases again towards the mid and late week period.
Severe thunderstorms occurred yesterday in eastern Pennsylvania, concluding with a squall line that progressed through the tri-state area early today with heavy rain and wind gusts over 40 mph. With the upper level trough departing this morning, drier conditions will return through the late week and weekend, with temperatures gradually rebounding into the mid to upper 80s into early next week before the next potential for thunderstorms.