May 27, 2012: Additional Storms Through Tuesday

Forecast Highlights:


- Hot, humid on Monday and Tuesday away from coast
- Scattered strong storms on Monday, more widespread Tuesday night
- Additional rain possible on Friday, next weekend


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Today's Observations:

Partly sunny skies were observed in parts of the area today as the second day of very warm and humid conditions affected the region. Isolated thunderstorm activity was observed in parts of the area today, most notably affecting northern NJ, where amounts locally near/above 1 inch were observed, but no widespread strong storm activity was observed. Temperatures were warm but not as warm as yesterday, with highs reaching the lower to mid 80s from NYC and further north/west and the mid 70s to lower 80s in Long Island and southern CT, which was slightly warmer than expected yesterday.

Monday will be another hot and humid day with a risk of isolated storm activity, although an approaching cold front will result in a more widespread thunderstorm potential on Tuesday, followed by drier conditions and cooler temperatures. The dry conditions won't last for long, however, as there is another rain potential for late in the week into next weekend.


Monday's Outlook:


Partly sunny skies are expected on Monday with warmer temperatures, reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s from NYC and further north/west and the lower to upper 80s in Long Island and southern CT. Parts of the immediate coast may fail to reach 80 degrees. There is a risk of isolated thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon hours, although no widespread storm activity is expected. Should any widespread activity develop, an afternoon update will be posted, otherwise the next update will be posted on Monday night. With humidity expected, heat index is likely to reach the lower 90s in parts of the immediate NYC area, possibly getting close to 95 degrees.


Tuesday - Beyond: Rain Continues, Temperatures Cool Down


Tuesday will be the last very warm and humid day as a cold front approaches from the west, resulting in widespread strong/severe thunderstorm activity across the region. During the day, most of the severe storm activity will focus to the west of the area with a risk of scattered strong thunderstorms west of NYC in the afternoon. Temperatures will peak in the mid to locally upper 80s from NYC and further north/west and the mid 70s to lower 80s in most of Long Island/S CT, getting near the mid 80s closer to NYC. Storms, locally strong/severe, are then expected to affect the area later in the afternoon into the evening and parts of the overnight hours. Drier conditions are expected for Wednesday with partly sunny skies and less humidity but with warm temperatures still sticking around, reaching the lower to mid 80s across most of the area.

Behind the cold front, with a strong block developing and persisting over Greenland, a somewhat cooler pattern with troughs more frequent than ridges will develop. Thursday is also likely to be dry with highs cooling down into the 70s and the remnants of Tropical Storm Beryl staying southeast, although by Friday and parts of the weekend another low pressure will approach from the west, bringing another risk of rain and thunderstorms.

May 26, 2012: Heat, Humidity Continue

Forecast Highlights:


- Heat, humidity last through Tuesday
- Risk of scattered storms continues through Tuesday
- Cooler, drier ending to next week
- TROPICS: Beryl Approaches Landfall


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Today's Observations:

With a large ridge building into the region, warmer temperatures were observed across the region today, with temperatures peaking in the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further north/west and in the upper 70s to lower 80s in most of Long Island and southern CT, verifying yesterday's temperature outlook for today. Scattered strong thunderstorm activity formed today, affecting mostly places north and west of NYC. The biggest activity was in northwestern NJ and Rockland county in NY, where slow moving storms dumped over 1-2 inches of rain.

Heat and humidity will continue through Tuesday, with additional scattered strong storms north/west of NYC on Sunday and Monday. A cold front will move through between Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in more widespread thunderstorm activity, some of which could be strong/severe. A cooler air mass will return behind the cold front, although there is still no prolonged break from the rain as there are additional signs for an additional rainstorm late in the week, possibly into the weekend.


Sunday - Monday Outlook:


The warm air mass will remain over the region for the next few days, resulting in additional heat and humidity. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly cooler, reaching the upper 70s to mid 80s from NYC and further north/west and the mid to upper 70s in most of Long Island/southern CT, reaching the lower 80s in some spots. Scattered thunderstorms, locally heavy, are likely north/west of NYC especially in the late afternoon/evening hours.

Warmer temperatures are expected for Monday, with SW winds and partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further north/west and the upper 70s to mid 80s in Long Island and southern CT. Depending on the amount of cloud cover and the timing of the scattered storm activity in the afternoon, parts of NE NJ may reach the lower 90s. Humid conditions are expected again, resulting in a heat index higher than the actual temperature.


Tuesday - Beyond: Rain Continues


The cold front will affect the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, with more widespread thunderstorms, possibly strong, expected. Hot and humid conditions are still expected for Tuesday, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s away from the coast, with storm activity more likely towards the second part of the day and into the overnight hours. Warm but less humid conditions are likely for Wednesday with temperatures still reaching the 80s away from the coast, with isolated storm activity possible but likely ending up less widespread than that of Tuesday.

Drier conditions are likely on Thursday as well with subtropical storm Beryl's remnants passing to the southeast of the area. By later in the week and into parts of the weekend, however, another low pressure will approach from the west, likely resulting in increased storm activity. Temperatures are expected to be cooler, cooling down into the 70s for most of the area for highs from Thursday into the weekend. Stay tuned for more information on the longer range.


Tropics: Beryl Approaching Landfall




Subtropical storm Beryl continued to slightly intensify throughout the day as it approached the coast of northeastern Florida, and as of NHC's 11 PM update had 50 mph sustained winds with a minimum pressure of 998 mb. Beryl is currently located southeast of South Carolina, and is moving SW at 7 mph. Beryl is expected to make landfall in NE Florida late on Sunday, weakening to a depression overland. Afterwards, Beryl is expected to move back northeast and offshore, although by the time that it does so around Tuesday/Wednesday it will begin to gain extra-tropical characteristics, with the remnants of Beryl accelerating NE parallel to the coast but mostly staying offshore.

May 26, 2012 Storm Updates

5:10 PM: Scattered strong thunderstorms affected the interior parts of the area earlier this afternoon, affecting NW NJ and SE NY over the last few hours. A strong storm developed over SE New York in Rockland county and stalled in place, producing heavy rainfall and areas of flash flooding. Since these storms developed, activity has decreased over the area while increasing around the area, with increased activity in Pennsylvania and southern Connecticut. Isolated storms are possible again later tonight, although the activity earlier this afternoon was the peak of today's storms.

For tomorrow, there are still indications showing that an area of strong storms may develop over Pennsylvania and affect the western half of the area during the late afternoon, evening and early overnight hours. Otherwise, hot and humid conditions will continue with temperatures surging well into the 80s from NYC and further north/west on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Scattered strong storms are possible again in interior areas on Monday and Tuesday.

Late May 25, 2012: Hot, Humid, Then Stormy

Forecast Highlights:


- Heat, humidity for Saturday-Tuesday
- Cold front brings strong storm potential mid next week
- Cooler, less humid end to next week
- TROPICS: Subtropical Storm Beryl develops (more info in bottom)

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Today's Observations:

Another mostly cloudy day was observed across the area today, although shower coverage was less widespread than the last few days. With less rain, warmer temperatures were observed, peaking in the mid to upper 70s from NYC and further north/west and the upper 60s to lower 70s across most of Long Island and southern CT. Humid conditions were observed as well.

With a strong ridge building over the region, the warmth will continue to intensify, with heat and humidity expected from Saturday through Tuesday, when a cold front will approach, bringing a risk of strong thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures and drier conditions will return behind the front, although a risk of rain may return again by the end of next week or next weekend.


Saturday - Monday Outlook: Hot, Humid; Stormy For Some


Hot and humid conditions are expected for this year's Memorial Day Weekend. Saturday will bring SW winds with very warm temperatures, reaching the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further north/west and the upper 70s to mid 80s in Long Island/S CT away from the immediate coast. Temperatures may reach 90 degrees in parts of NE NJ. Humid conditions are expected as well, resulting in heat index potentially reaching and/or passing 90 degrees in parts of the immediate NYC area. Partly cloudy skies are expected, with a risk of scattered strong thunderstorms north and west of NYC during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Sunday will be partly to mostly cloudy with slightly cooler temperatures, reaching the mid 70s to lower 80s across most of the area. Scattered strong thunderstorms, locally heavy, are expected north and west of NYC, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Although there were originally signs of a back door cold front moving through, the cold front is now likely to be delayed until Monday night or Tuesday, if it even does come through at all, with SW winds and partly cloudy skies on Monday resulting in what may be the hottest day of this time period. Temperatures are currently expected to climb into the mid to upper 80s from NYC and further north/west, possibly the lower 90s in the warmer case scenario, with cooler temperatures near the coast. Humid conditions are expected again, with a risk of isolated storms inland during the late afternoon/evening hours.


Tuesday - Beyond: Cold Front Comes Through


Regardless of whether a back door cold front does come through around Monday night or Tuesday or not, there is a risk of thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and night; depending on the timing of the approaching cold front from the west, there is a risk of strong thunderstorms. Temperatures will depend on the back door cold front, although temperatures are expected to reach the 80s again from NYC and further north/west. The cold front will clear the region on Wednesday, with drier conditions and temperatures in the 70s returning for the second half of the week.


Tropics: Subtropical Storm Beryl Develops




Invest 94L became more organized throughout the day, and as of NHC's 11 PM update, is listed as Subtropical Storm Beryl, with sustained winds of 45 mph and a minimum pressure of 1001 mb. Having two named storms develop in the Atlantic before the official start of the hurricane season is very unusual; most seasons did not even have a single named storm develop in May. While the hurricane season is off to an active start, it does not mean that the season will be very active, however; more information on this will be discussed in my hurricane season outlook, which will be posted on June 1st.

Beryl is currently located southeast of North Carolina and is slowly moving north. Beryl is expected to move more towards the southwest over the next two days, slowly intensifying while gaining more tropical characteristics. Beryl is expected to make landfall around Georgia or northeast Florida on Sunday, weakening to a depression afterwards. This post will be updated with more information on Beryl on Saturday morning.

May 24, 2012: No End To Stormy Pattern In Sight

Forecast Highlights:


- Cloudy/Partly Cloudy and Stormy Pattern to Continue
- Warm and Humid Memorial Day Weekend Expected
- Risk of Severe Weather Next Week
- TROPICS: 2nd Named Storm of Season May Form


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Today's Observations:

Today ended up as the fourth consecutive mainly cloudy and stormy day across the area, with scattered thunderstorms resulting in locally heavy rain, especially near NYC. Early this afternoon, locally heavy storms affected NYC and parts of western Long Island and NE NJ, with additional scattered heavy storms affecting NYC and Long Island this evening. Temperatures were cooler than those of yesterday, peaking in the upper 60s to lower 70s for most places. Temperatures from Montauk, NJ; Andover, NJ; and Westhampton Beach, NY were not included in the graphic due to gaps in the observations.

The active pattern is expected to continue, with a risk of scattered storms lasting through this weekend and going straight through most of next week as well. In addition to the risk of thunderstorms, especially on Tuesday and/or Wednesday next week, temperatures will also warm up, with warm and humid conditions expected, especially on Saturday and around Tuesday with temperatures warming up into the mid to upper 80s away from the coast.


Friday - Weekend Outlook:


Friday will continue the trend observed over the last few days, with mainly cloudy skies, possibly becoming partly/mostly cloudy in the afternoon north/west of NYC, along with isolated storms. While the whole area will not be affected by storms, any storm that does move through may be heavy. Temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s from NYC and further north/west, and the upper 60s to mid 70s in Long Island and southern CT.

The active pattern is expected to continue through Memorial Day Weekend; in addition to a risk of storms, heat and humidity will begin to increase as a strong ridge moves into the region. Influence from a back door cold front will be felt around Sunday and Monday, although temperatures will still remain in the 70s and 80s for highs. Saturday appears to be the warmest day, with highs warming up into the 80s away from the coast, perhaps passing 85 degrees in parts of the immediate NYC area. Partly cloudy skies are expected with potential thunderstorms in the evening and overnight hours, although storms are not expected to be widespread. There is also a risk of scattered storms on Sunday, especially north of NYC, with slightly cooler temperatures expected. Monday is expected to be similar to Sunday.

Looking forward into next week, a cold front will move through either on Tuesday night or Wednesday, resulting in a risk of strong or severe storms in parts of the region. Warmer temperatures are likely as well, perhaps surging well into the 80s again away from the coast. Cooler temperatures are expected for the second half of the week with less humidity, although any break from the stormy pattern is not expected to last for long.


Tropics: Tropical / Subtropical Storm Beryl Up Next?


The season of 2011-2012 has had some odd weather events; winter 2011-12 began unusually early with an October snowstorm, but ended up otherwise mild with almost no snow, and just as winter ended the pattern began to resemble a more winter-like one in April with a blocking pattern. The hurricane season also had an interesting start, with the first year on record that both the Atlantic (Alberto) and Pacific (Aletta) hurricane seasons started earlier than the official start dates. The Pacific season continued to develop interestingly with a major hurricane, Bud, currently active and headed towards Mexico; considering the time of the year, Bud is a notable storm, making it the last time since 2007 that two named storms formed in May in the East Pacific and the 4th time this has happened on record, with Bud only the 3rd major hurricane recorded in May.

The Atlantic season is also off to an active start. Tropical Storm Alberto formed last week, making it the earliest tropical cyclone to form since Ana in April of 2003. Invest 94L is currently developing near the southeastern US, and although it is not surrounded by a very favorable environment for development, it is possible that within the next few days, Invest 94L develops into a subtropical or tropical storm, making it the 2nd of the season. A strong ridge will build on top of 94L, forcing it west/WSW towards the Southeast US.

May 23, 2012 Brief Update

Wednesday, May 23 Observations:

Cloudy to mostly cloudy skies were observed throughout the day, with slow moving heavy storms affecting interior parts of northern NJ and SE NY where locally heavy rain amounts were observed. High temperatures ended up in the mid to upper 70s across most of the area, with a few lower 70s further east.



Forecast Overview:


- Thursday and Friday are expected to have conditions similar to those of Wednesday, although Thursday will be slightly cooler and cloudier with a lower risk of storms. Friday appears to include another risk of locally heavy slow moving storms north/west of NYC.

- Weekend outlook: Saturday is expected to be mostly dry, with partly cloudy skies, a potential for an isolated thunderstorm, and temperatures surging into the 80s away from the coast, passing 85 degrees in parts of northern NJ. Humid conditions are expected throughout the weekend as well. The latest models continue to signal the potential for heavy thunderstorms on Sunday associated with storms moving in from the north central US on Saturday night. Tonight's forecast continues to mention a risk of scattered storms on Sunday, although heavy and/or strong thunderstorms are possible. The exact location of these storms though is still somewhat uncertain and is subject to some changes.

- Early-Mid Week: Depending on how far south the back door cold front drops, temperatures on Monday may be slightly cooler than those of Sunday, but will still stay in the 70s and possibly in the 80s inland. With a cold front approaching on Tuesday as the ridge weakens, the possibility is there for warmer temperatures, possibly getting up to 90 degrees, along with a risk of thunderstorms, possibly strong/severe depending on the specific set up of the low pressure and the cold front. Cooler temperatures and less humidity are expected for the second half of next week. Stay tuned for more information.

May 22, 2012: Cloudy, Wet Pattern Continues

Forecast Highlights:


- Scattered showers/storms last through Friday
- Hot, humid conditions develop by weekend, next week
- Additional thunderstorms expected next week once again


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Today's Observations:

Following yesterday's heavy showers, occasional showers fell throughout the day today, although no widespread washout was observed. Temperatures were slightly warmer than those of yesterday but still ended up cooler than average, reaching the mid 60s to lower 70s in Long Island/S CT and the lower to mid 70s from NY and further north/west. The majority of the rain over the last 2 days continued to focus over the immediate NYC area, with radar estimates showing 1-3 inches in most of the immediate NYC area, and less than 1/2 inch for most of Long Island and S CT.

Temperatures will remain in the 70s throughout the rest of the week with additional scattered shower and thunderstorm activity expected at times throughout the days. A ridge will build into the region by the weekend but with a back door cold front affecting the region as well, resulting in a combination of moderate heat with temperatures in the 80s, humid conditions, and potential thunderstorm activity for the late weekend into next week, keeping the mainly cloudy and wet pattern in place through next week once again.


Wednesday - Friday Outlook:


The next few days will continue with the mostly cloudy skies and scattered thunderstorms, although breaks in the cloud cover are expected to be slightly more frequent, especially on Wednesday and Friday. Temperatures are expected to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s further east and the mid to locally upper 70s from NYC and further north/west. Locally heavy showers are possible, with most of the models indicating that Wednesday has the best potential for heavy thunderstorms, especially north and west of NYC during the mid to late afternoon hours.


Weekend - Next Week: Warmer, Humid And Stormy


A large ridge developing in the central US will spread into the region on Saturday, with temperatures warming up into the lower to possibly mid 80s away from the coast. Saturday has a lower risk of rain; although a few isolated storms are possible late, the day will otherwise be partly cloudy. Model differences remain for Sunday into next week, as the GFS' earlier runs as well as the latest DGEX continue to show no back door cold front resulting in a stretch of a few days of 90-95 degree temperatures, while the ECM and the latest GFS runs show more influence from the back door cold front. While the ECM may have overestimated the back door cold front to some extent, the cold front solution is more reasonable than the large heat wave given the pattern in place. The operational GFS also received an upgrade today, and this upcoming active time period will test how well it performs.

With the back door cold front near the region, temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s away from the coast are possible on Sunday and Monday, followed by another brief surge of heat possible sometime around Tuesday or a bit later; depending on the timing and intensity of this surge of warmth, temperatures may perhaps get to 90 degrees away from the coast. There is also a risk of thunderstorms depending on where the back door cold front sets up; this afternoon's models are in agreement with showing the potential for thunderstorms, possibly strong/severe, on Sunday into Sunday night. For now, I placed a risk of scattered storms on Sunday, although some changes are still possible with the forecast due to uncertainty and the lack of agreement on a single solution for this time period. Stay tuned for more updates on the Memorial Day Weekend outlook.