Oct 02

Oct 2, 2015: Joaquin’s Forecast Shifts Offshore; Poor Model Performance

Forecast Highlights:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14The last few days have been highlighted by abnormally drastic shifts in the model guidance regarding hurricane Joaquin, the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean since 2010, which have since largely settled on a track far offshore, a major difference from the model consensus just 24-36 hours ago for a Mid Atlantic landfall. Today’s post analyzes some of the factors that contributed to the exceptionally poor model guidance performance for Joaquin, as well as an update on the forecast through the remainder of the week. (Image from Tropical Tidbits)

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Sep 29

Sept 29, 2015: Heavy Rain, Wind Return This Week

Forecast Highlights:

1_gfsFollowing several months of relative inactivity, highlighted by well above normal temperatures and drier than normal conditions with much of the tri-state area in a drought, two major rain events are expected to affect the region this week, ending a 2+ week stretch of no rain. Multiple rounds of rain are expected, especially on Wednesday morning and possibly during the weekend, resulting from the interaction of a deep trough and Tropical Storm Joaquin, potentially amounting to several inches of rain which will aid in easing the drought but with the risk of significant heavy rainfall and storm surge along the coast in the worst case scenario.

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Sep 23

Sept 23, 2015: Anomalous Warm, Dry Pattern Continues Unabated

Forecast Highlights:

na_f30The anomalous warm and dry pattern observed throughout this month and much of August continues unabated, with temperatures over 5-7 degrees above normal and only 4 out of 33 days having recorded measurable rain at Central Park. Little relief is in sight with the upper-level ridge persisting through the remainder of the month, although the possibility of at least some rain can’t be ruled out towards September 27-30 with a weak coastal low pressure.

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Sep 08

Sept 8, 2015: Cooler Temps, Rain Return Late This Week

Forecast Highlights:

gfs_z500_vort_namer_8September 2015 started off on an anomalously warm note, with the first week of the month averaging out to at least 5 to 8 degrees above normal. The persistence of upper-level ridging has further suppressed any rain potentials, with the last significant rain event having occurred nearly a month ago. Short-term relief from the heat and drought is on the way, however, as the trough axis shifts eastward towards the Great Lakes, accompanied by a slow frontal passage on Thursday accompanied by much cooler temperatures and potentially heavy rain.

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Aug 29

Aug 29, 2015: September to Start With Heat Wave, Drought

Forecast Highlights:

gfs_z500a_sd_namer_15Little relief is expected from the ongoing drought over portions of the area as an anomalously strong upper-level ridge becomes stationed over the eastern half of the US through at least the next 1-2 weeks. With the exception of a possible backdoor cold front late next week, little to no rain is expected during this upcoming period with above to well above normal temperatures, returning into the 90s in parts of the area in the first half of the upcoming week and potentially becoming the first September heat wave since 2010.

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Aug 25

August 25, 2015: Cooling Down, Little Rain in Sight

Forecast Highlights:

nam_tmp2m_f27A weak cold front moved through the region today, and brought little relief from the expanding abnormally dry conditions as the majority of the rain stayed well inland. As an upper level trough continues to slowly expand eastward, temperatures will cool down on Wednesday and Thursday, only peaking in the upper 70s to low 80s, before rebounding into the upper 80s by the weekend with a risk of isolated thunderstorms, and possibly returning into the 90s by next week with no significant rain event in sight at this time.

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Aug 18

August 18, 2015: Rain to Return Late This Week


Notice: Posts will be posted at least once every 3 days, or more frequently if there is significant weather ongoing, as changes are being made to the blog. For more information, please refer to yesterday’s statement.

Forecast Highlights:

hrrr_tmp2m_f6Temperatures climbed into the 90s for the 3rd consecutive day for most of the tri-state area yesterday, the first such occurrence this month and in Central Park’s case, the first heat wave since July 2013. Temperatures will gradually cool off as mid-level ridging shifts offshore and a low-level onshore flow becomes established, ahead of a slow late-week frontal passage which may deliver some rain but likely fail to reverse the continued abnormally dry conditions.

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Aug 16

Important Blog Statement

NYC Area Weather has been dedicated to posting in-depth analyses of current and forecast weather in the tri-state area and across the northeastern United States for the last several years, with a goal of providing objective detailed forecasts for the short and medium range. I sincerely appreciate the support of those who have followed the blog over the years, as otherwise it would not have persisted for this long.

Over the last several months, however, the vision for the future of this blog has changed. While my intention is to continue to provide detailed forecast analyses for the tri-state area, the format of the posts and other aspects of the blog will be revised in the coming months.

In the meantime, starting from Monday, 8/17, forecast analyses will be posted at least once every 3 days, except for significant weather events in which more frequent updates will be posted, although for the next several months I will be revamping the blog with a greater emphasis on the detailed meteorological analysis for the Northeast and Mid Atlantic regions, as well as providing storm archives for the tri-state area and model guidance data.

Thank you for following the blog through the years and I hope to continue to provide an outlet for useful meteorological analysis and data through this blog in the future.

Jul 24

** Blog Notice **

July 24, 2015 Blog Notice

For unknown reasons, multiple pages on the blog that incorporate JavaScript codes are not functioning, such as the 8-Day Forecast page. I am working to have this issue fixed, although it is unclear at this time when these pages will be back to functioning normally.

In order to have all of the pages back up and functioning normally, as well as a timely addition of new features to the blog that are currently under development, no forecast updates will be posted through Friday, July 31st. Daily forecast updates will remain limited into August as additional features are incorporated into the blog, but are currently planned to resume once all updates to the blog are complete, likely towards late August or September. I apologize for any inconvenience caused by these recent issues.

Jul 09

July 9, 2015: Strong Storms Possible This Evening

Forecast Highlights:

wrf-nmm_ref_neus_24A strong mid-level shortwave trough accompanied by a surface low pressure is expected to track through the region this evening, bringing the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms mainly west of NYC late today, capable of producing strong to damaging wind gusts. A weak high pressure will return for Friday through Monday, providing sunshine but gradually warming temperatures ahead of the next frontal passage by the middle of next week.

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