Jul 03

July 3, 2015: Wet & Chilly 4th of July Expected

Forecast Highlights:

ne_f30A short range shift in the forecast is increasing the likelihood of a wet and chilly 4th of July in NYC, as a wave of low pressure develops farther north than previously forecast with rain spreading through the tri-state area on Saturday. A brief period of drier and warmer conditions is expected for Sunday and Monday before the potential for thunderstorms increases again towards the mid and late week period.

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Jul 01

July 1, 2015: Quieter Ending To Week

Forecast Highlights:

f126Severe thunderstorms occurred yesterday in eastern Pennsylvania, concluding with a squall line that progressed through the tri-state area early today with heavy rain and wind gusts over 40 mph. With the upper level trough departing this morning, drier conditions will return through the late week and weekend, with temperatures gradually rebounding into the mid to upper 80s into early next week before the next potential for thunderstorms.

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Jun 30

June 30, 2015: Warmer Week Ahead

Forecast Highlights:

radarAfter an unseasonably strong low pressure system produced a widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain across the region on Saturday, an upper level trough persists over the eastern half of the US but with a gradual warming trend continuing as temperatures return into the 80s for the majority of the upcoming week.

A strong shortwave trough will progress through the region today, resulting in strong to severe thunderstorms over western NJ into Pennsylvania, with additional rain possible on Wednesday before a drier ending to the week.

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Jun 25

June 25, 2015: Strong System Expected on Saturday

Forecast Highlights:

ne_f60Heat and humidity made a brief return to the region ahead of a strong cold front on Tuesday, producing severe thunderstorms in New Jersey, Long Island and New England but largely bypassing western parts of the tri-state area. Warm temperatures will not last for long, however, as an anomalously strong ridge becomes stationed over the western US placing the region under a cooler than average pattern with frequent rain events over the next week.

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Jun 23

June 23, 2015: Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon

 

Notice

Note: The 8-Day Forecast has been updated this afternoon.

Forecast Highlights:

nam4km_ref_neus_5A strong cold front will progress through the region today, accompanied by a strong mid-level jet streak and a warm and unstable air mass to produce scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of producing strong to damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado risk later this afternoon. This will be the last summer-like outbreak for a while, as a trend towards an anomalously strong northeast US trough may result in a much colder and wetter ending to the week more typical of spring than late June.

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Jun 21

June 21, 2015: Hot, Humid Start to Week

Forecast Highlights:

f54The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill, the second named storm of this year’s hurricane season, passed through the tri-state area last night with substantially less impact than anticipated, with rain totals generally remaining below an inch. Additional isolated storms are possible tonight, but with an otherwise warm and humid air mass lingering through Tuesday, when a cold front may produce severe thunderstorms followed by a cooling trend into the longer range.

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Jun 19

June 19, 2015: Bill’s Remnants Approach on Sunday

Forecast Highlights:

nam4km_ref_neus_17Drier and warmer conditions will briefly return into the tri-state area today as a weak cold front shifts to the south, with temperatures likely to rise into the mid 80s this afternoon. Rain is expected to return this weekend as Bill’s remnants continue to make the long journey from Texas to New Jersey, but with uncertainty regarding how much rain spreads into the tri-state area. Additional thunderstorms are possible towards the second half of next week as any sustained heat remains well to the south.

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Jun 16

June 16, 2015: Additional Storms Likely Today

Forecast Highlights:

southcentral.visYesterday’s frontal boundary shifted south of NYC after producing locally heavy rain, but will retreat again north today as a warm front before another cold front comes in from the northwest, initiating scattered thunderstorms which may produce localized strong wind gusts. Drier conditions will return for the midweek period before attention shifts to Tropical Storm Bill, currently making landfall in Texas and which may have some indirect impacts in the region in the longer range.

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Jun 15

June 15, 2015: Isolated Storms Possible Today

Forecast Highlights:

rad32A weakening squall line progressed through the tri-state area last night, producing relatively weak wind gusts but with rainfall totals exceeding 1/2 to locally 1 inch. A stalled front will linger over the tri-state area today with a continued risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms continuing into Tuesday, with an otherwise dry midweek period as focus shifts into the Gulf of Mexico, where a tropical disturbance may spread inland through the US.

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Jun 14

June 14, 2015 Evening Update

9:40 PM: Storms Moving Towards NYC

Radar image as of 9:25 PM EDT, from the College of DuPage.

DIX.N0Q.20150615.0125The latest radar imagery out of Mt. Holly, NJ, posted to the left, depicts a squall line moving through central New Jersey, with a segment of higher reflectivity values over Somerset and Morris counties. Observations from eastern Pennsylvania, as well as radar estimates, suggest wind gusts up to 30-45 mph accompanying this segment of the line, which is below severe threshold but still capable of localized wind damage. The line will continue to move east, likely reaching eastern NJ and NYC over the next 30-50 minutes.

The latest SPC Mesoanalysis update indicates the environment within the tri-state area is not conducive for maintenance of strong to severe intensity storms; dewpoints are currently in the 50s, indicating a relative lack of moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere, and mid-level lapse rates are generally low, around 5.5 C/km. Accordingly, CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values are marginal at most, generally below 500 J/kg east of the NJ/PA border. 0-6km wind shear, or the change in wind speed and direction between the surface and 6 kilometers above ground levels, are marginal as well, near or below 30 knots; typically, shear values above 35-40 knots are considered to be more favorable. As the line continues to progress east, the intense segment over north central NJ is likely to lose its severity, although a very moist environment overall with PWATs over 2 inches spreading into the tri-state area overnight will likely favor a continuation of locally heavy rain through the early-mid overnight hours, locally up to 0.5 to 1 inch, as well as gusts up to 30-35 mph possible into NYC.

Additional storms are possible through Tuesday and Wednesday, along with a potential for a weak tropical storm to develop in the Gulf of Mexico with its remnants potentially spreading inland through the US; a more detailed analysis will be posted later this evening.

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